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Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach

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  • Bonham, Carl
  • Gangnes, Byron
  • Zhou, Ting

Abstract

System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested by Hall, Henry and Greenslade [Hall, S. G., Henry, S., & Greenslade, J. (2002). On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: A modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1517-1537], we estimate a vector error correction model of Hawaii tourism, where both demand and supply-side influences are important. We identify reasonable long-run equilibrium relationships, and Diebold-Mariano tests for forecast accuracy demonstrate satisfactory forecasting performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 531-549

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:3:p:531-549

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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Keywords: Cointegration Vector error correction model Identification Tourism demand and supply analysis Tourism forecasting Hawaii;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hae:wpaper:2013-2 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Denise Eby Konan, 2010. "Limits to Growth: Tourism and Regional Labor Migration," Working Papers 2010-14, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  3. Timothy Halliday & Hui He & Hao Zhang, 2010. "Health Investment over the Life-Cycle," Working Papers 201020, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  4. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
  5. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0915, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  6. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0913, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  7. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-651, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  8. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201314, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

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