System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested by Hall, Henry and Greenslade [Hall, S. G., Henry, S., & Greenslade, J. (2002). On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: A modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1517-1537], we estimate a vector error correction model of Hawaii tourism, where both demand and supply-side influences are important. We identify reasonable long-run equilibrium relationships, and Diebold-Mariano tests for forecast accuracy demonstrate satisfactory forecasting performance.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 25 (2009) Issue (Month): 3 (July) Pages: 531-549 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract),
plain text
(with abstract),
BibTeX,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)