A Time Varying Parameter Approach to the Chinese Aggregate Consumption Function
AbstractChina experienced a number of economic, political and social upheavals in the pre-reform period, together with a gradual transformation from a centrally-planned to a market oriented economy in the post-reform period. Given this background of extensive change, a time varying parameter (TVP) consumption model for non-durables is developed in order to determine the resulting changes in consumer behavior caused by both observable and unobservable factors. The parameters of interest are the short and long run marginal propensities to consume (MPC) and the long run average propensity to consume (APC). The model is based on Friedman's permanent income hypothesis (PIH) and estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The empirical results suggest that the TVP model is a good representation of the changes in Chinese consumer behavior over time. In terms of forecasting, the TVP model generally outperforms a number of alternative models. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Planning.
Volume (Year): 29 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294
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- Shulian Zhang, 2005. "Consumption Behaviour Under Institutional Transitions in China," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 189, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
- Guy Shaojia Liu & Haiyan Song, 2003. "A Dual-Price Demand Theory for Economies under Transition," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 185-203.
- Qi, Li & Prime, Penelope B., 2009. "Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 388-401, September.
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