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A Time Varying Parameter Approach to the Chinese Aggregate Consumption Function

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  • Song, Haiyan
  • Liu, Xiaming
  • Romilly, Peter

Abstract

China experienced a number of economic, political and social upheavals in the pre-reform period, together with a gradual transformation from a centrally-planned to a market oriented economy in the post-reform period. Given this background of extensive change, a time varying parameter (TVP) consumption model for non-durables is developed in order to determine the resulting changes in consumer behavior caused by both observable and unobservable factors. The parameters of interest are the short and long run marginal propensities to consume (MPC) and the long run average propensity to consume (APC). The model is based on Friedman's permanent income hypothesis (PIH) and estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The empirical results suggest that the TVP model is a good representation of the changes in Chinese consumer behavior over time. In terms of forecasting, the TVP model generally outperforms a number of alternative models. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Song, Haiyan & Liu, Xiaming & Romilly, Peter, 1996. "A Time Varying Parameter Approach to the Chinese Aggregate Consumption Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 185-203.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:29:y:1996:i:3:p:185-203
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    Cited by:

    1. Duo Qin, 2003. "Determinants of household savings in China and their role in quasi‐money supply," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 513-537, September.
    2. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 1998. "The UK consumption function and structural instability: improving forecasting performance using a time-varying parameter approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 975-983.
    3. Shulian Zhang, 2005. "Consumption Behaviour Under Institutional Transitions in China," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 189, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    4. Guy Shaojia Liu & Haiyan Song, 2003. "A Dual-Price Demand Theory for Economies under Transition," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 185-203.
    5. Qi, Li & Prime, Penelope B., 2009. "Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 388-401, September.
    6. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    7. Ahmad Farid Osman & Maxwell L. King, 2015. "A new approach to forecasting based on exponential smoothing with independent regressors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Gao, Lei & Mei, Bin, 2013. "Investor attention and abnormal performance of timberland investments in the United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-65.
    9. Federico Scarpa & Vincenzo Bianco, 2017. "Assessing the Quality of Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting: An Application to the Italian Residential Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.

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