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Interdependence of International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Leading ASEAN Destinations

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Author Info

  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Thanchanok Khamkaew

    (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Roengchai Tansuchat

    (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University)

Abstract

International and domestic tourism are leading economic activities in the world today. Tourism has been known to generate goods and services directly and indirectly, attract foreign currency, stimulate employment, and provide opportunities for investment. It has also been recognized as an important means for achieving economic development. Substantial research has been conducted to evaluate the role of international tourism, and its associated volatility, within and across various economies. This paper applies several recently developed models of multivariate conditional volatility to investigate the interdependence of international tourism demand, as measured by international tourist arrivals, and its associated volatility in the four leading destinations in ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Each of these countries has attractive tourism characteristics, such as significant cultural and natural resources. Shocks to international tourism demand volatility could affect, positively or negatively, the volatility in tourism demand of neighbouring countries. The empirical results should encourage regional co-operation in tourism development among ASEAN member countries, and also mobilize international and regional organizations to provide appropriate policy actions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 719.

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Length: 43pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:719

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Keywords: Tourism demand; ASEAN; multivariate GARCH; volatility spillovers; interdependence; economic development; seasonality;

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References

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  1. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  2. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Test procedures for unit roots in time series with level shifts at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,39, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Divino, J. A. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon," Econometric Institute Report EI 2008-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
  4. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  5. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  6. Michael McAleer & Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan, 2009. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 422-440.
  7. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
  8. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  9. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Christine Lim, 2009. "Modelling Short and Long Haul Volatility in Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-647, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  10. Riaz Shareef & Michael McAleer, 2005. "Modelling International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Small Island Tourism Economies," Working papers 2005-17, Edith Cowan University, School of Accounting Finance & Economics.
  11. Suhejla Hoti & Riaz Shareef & Michael McAleer, 2005. "Modelling International Tourism and Country Risk Spillovers for Cyprus and Malta," Working papers 2005-16, Edith Cowan University, School of Accounting Finance & Economics.
  12. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009. "Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0906, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  13. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-651, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  14. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
  15. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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