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Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan

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  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate and tourist arrivals from Korea to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. The sample period includes the Asian economic and financial crises in 1997, and a significant part of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Inclusion of the exchange rate allows approximate daily price effects on Korean tourism arrivals to Taiwan to be captured. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model is used to capture long memory properties in exchange rates and Korean tourist arrivals, to test whether alternative estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the long memory in the conditional mean, and to examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility. The empirical results show that the conditional volatility estimates are not sensitive to the long memory nature of the conditional mean specifications. The QMLE for the GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models for Korean tourist arrivals to Taiwan and the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models.

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File URL: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/199.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-192.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf192

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References

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  1. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0918, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  2. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
  3. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
  4. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  5. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH(r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models," ISER Discussion Paper 0534, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value-At-Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 831-849, December.
  7. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CARF F-Series CARF-F-159, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  8. McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez Amaral, Teodosio, 2009. "Optimal Risk Management Before, During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 20975, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2009.
  9. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0915, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  10. Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-651, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  11. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  12. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
  13. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
  14. McAleer, M.J. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2009. "What Happened to Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-17, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  16. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  17. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  18. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009. "Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0906, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  19. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
  20. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  21. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  22. Michael McAller & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2007. "A multiple regime smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Textos para discussão 544, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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  24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  25. Shareef, Riaz & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Modelling international tourism demand and uncertainty in Maldives and Seychelles: A portfolio approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 459-468.
  26. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-13, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  2. Chaovanapoonphol, Y. & Lim, C. & McAleer, M.J. & Wiboonpongse, A., 2010. "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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