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A risk map of international tourist regions in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Bartolomé, Ana
  • McAleer, Michael
  • Ramos, Vicente
  • Rey-Maquieira, Javier

Abstract

This paper presents a different approach to tourism research at the regional level. Financial econometric techniques are applied to international tourist arrivals, as well as their volatilities, in the five main tourist regions in Spain, using monthly international tourist arrivals during 1997–2007. Univariate time series models are estimated for the conditional means of monthly international tourist arrivals and their volatilities. The estimated conditional volatility models are GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1). Both the second moment and log-moment conditions are calculated to provide diagnostic checks of the estimated models. The conditional mean estimates are generally statistically adequate, and the inferences are valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartolomé, Ana & McAleer, Michael & Ramos, Vicente & Rey-Maquieira, Javier, 2009. "A risk map of international tourist regions in Spain," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2741-2758.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:79:y:2009:i:9:p:2741-2758
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.10.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jianxu Liu & Vicente Ramos & Bing Yang & Mengjiao Wang & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2024. "Analysing the dynamic co-movement between tourism and expected economic growth considering extreme events," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 3-26, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International tourist arrivals; Regional analysis; Seasonality; Spatial aggregation; Time-varying volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • G - Financial Economics
    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

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