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Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

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  • Chia-Lin Chang
  • Michael McAleer

    ()
    (University of Canterbury)

  • Christine Lim

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1040.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 10/40.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/40

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Keywords: Tourist arrivals; risk; conditional volatility; asymmetric effect; leverage;

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