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Risk Management for International Tourist Arrivals: An Application to the Balearic Islands, Spain

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Author Info

  • Ana Bartolome

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of the Balearic Islands)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Vicente Ramos

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of the Balearic Islands)

  • Javier Rey-Maquieira

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of the Balearic Islands)

Abstract

Spain is a leader in terms of total international tourist arrivals and receipts. The Balearic Islands are one of the most popular destinations in Spain. For tourism management and marketing, it is essential to forecast tourist arrivals accurately. As it is important to provide sensible tourist forecast intervals, it is also necessary to model their variances accurately. Time-varying variances also provide useful information regarding the risk associated with tourist arrivals. This paper examines spatial aggregation across micro entities to more aggregated macro entities, in addition to temporal aggregation, for purposes of analyzing risk in tourism marketing and management. The paper examines four different types of asymmetric behaviour related to the effects of positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude on volatility. The paper analyzes daily air passenger arrivals from the Spanish National Airport Authority from 2001-06 to the Balearics, using time series models for the conditional mean and conditional volatility.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf665.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-665.

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Length: 52pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf665

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