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The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges

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  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Credit risk is the most important type of risk in terms of monetary value. Another key risk measure is market risk, which is concerned with stocks and bonds, and related financial derivatives, as well as exchange rates and interest rates. This paper is concerned with market risk management and monitoring under the Basel II Accord, and presents Ten Commandments for optimizing Value-at-Risk (VaR) and daily capital charges, based on choosing wisely from: (1) conditional, stochastic and realized volatility; (2) symmetry, asymmetry and leverage; (3) dynamic correlations and dynamic covariances; (4) single index and portfolio models; (5) parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric models; (6) estimation, simulation and calibration of parameters; (7) assumptions, regularity conditions and statistical properties; (8) accuracy in calculating moments and forecasts; (9) optimizing threshold violations and economic benefits; and (10) optimizing private and public benefits of risk management. For practical purposes, it is found that the Basel II Accord would seem to encourage excessive risk taking at the expense of providing accurate measures and forecasts of risk and VaR.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-652.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf652

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References

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  1. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-643, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH(r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models," ISER Discussion Paper 0534, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  3. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
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  6. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
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  11. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  12. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  13. Comte, F. & Lieberman, O., 2003. "Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 61-84, January.
  14. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-644, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  15. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Do We Really Need Both BEKK and DCC? A Tale of Two Covariance Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-638, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  16. Pesaran, M.H. & Schleicher, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2008. "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0808, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Michael McAleer, 2005. "The ten commandments for ranking university quality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 649-653, 09.
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  22. Michael McAller & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2007. "A multiple regime smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Textos para discussão 544, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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  24. Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2005. "The Ten Commandments for Academics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 823-826, December.
  25. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  26. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 145-175.
  27. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2008. "Scalar BEKK and indirect DCC," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 537-549.
  28. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "A Portfolio Index GARCH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 449-461.
  29. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2005. "Dynamic Asymmetric Leverage in Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 317-332.
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  31. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Investments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 196-200, 02.
  32. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
  33. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  34. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  35. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
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  37. Juan-�ngel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Value At Risk Under The Basel Ii Accord," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 850-855, December.
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