Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Paulo Araújo Santos

    (Escola Superior de Gestão e Tecnologia de Santarém and Center of Statistics and Applications University of Lisbon)

  • Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín

    (Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid)

  • Teodosio Pérez Amaral

    (Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid)

Abstract

In McAleer et al. (2010b), a robust risk management strategy to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was proposed under the Basel II Accord by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast was based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. In this paper we provide further evidence on the suitability of the median as a GFC-robust strategy by using an additional set of new extreme value forecasting models and by extending the sample period for comparison. These extreme value models include DPOT and Conditional EVT. Such models might be expected to be useful in explaining financial data, especially in the presence of extreme shocks that arise during a GFC. Our empirical results confirm that the median remains GFC-robust even in the presence of these new extreme value models. This is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 GFC. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria, including several tests for independence of the violations. The strategy based on the median, or more generally, on combined forecasts of single models, is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP782.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 782.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:782

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501
Phone: +81-75-753-7102
Fax: +81-75-753-7193
Email:
Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Value-at-Risk (VaR); DPOT; daily capital charges; robust forecasts; violation penalties; optimizing strategy; aggressive risk management; conservative risk management; Basel; global financial crisis.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-652, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 1001, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  3. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
  4. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-158, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  5. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CARF F-Series CARF-F-159, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  6. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
  7. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A., 2005. "Estimation of Value-at-Risk by extreme value and conventional methods: a comparative evaluation of their predictive performance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 209-228, July.
  8. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2005. "The Ten Commandments for Academics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 823-826, December.
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  11. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  12. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06.
  13. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Model Selection and Testing of Conditional and Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers in Economics 10/58, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  14. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  16. Juan-�ngel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Value At Risk Under The Basel Ii Accord," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 850-855, December.
  17. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  18. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  19. Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2003. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 571, Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. McAleer, M.J. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2011. "International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under te Basel Accord," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-04, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  21. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
  22. Claudio Borio, 2008. "The financial turmoil of 2007-?: a preliminary assessment and some policy considerations," BIS Working Papers 251, Bank for International Settlements.
  23. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  24. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Investments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 196-200, 02.
  25. Alper Ozun & Atilla Cifter & Sait Yilmazer, 2010. "Filtered extreme-value theory for value-at-risk estimation: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 164-179, February.
  26. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  27. Ahmed Ghorbel & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2008. "Predictive performance of conditional Extreme Value Theory in Value-at-Risk estimation," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 121-148.
  28. Byström, Hans, 2001. "Managing Extreme Risks in Tranquil and Volatile Markets Using Conditional Extreme Value Theory," Working Papers 2001:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  29. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  30. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
  31. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  32. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  33. Pérignon, Christophe & Deng, Zi Yin & Wang, Zhi Jun, 2008. "Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 783-794, May.
  34. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  35. Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait, 2007. "Filtered Extreme Value Theory for Value-At-Risk Estimation," MPRA Paper 3302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Chia-Lin Chang & David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2013. "Risk Modeling and Management: An Overview," Working Papers in Economics 13/22, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ryo Okui).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.