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GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord

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A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. This risk management strategy is GFC-robust in the sense that maintaining the same risk management strategies before, during and after a financial crisis would lead to comparatively low daily capital charges and violation penalties. The new method is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria. The median VaR risk management strategy is GFC-robust as it provides stable results across different periods relative to other VaR forecasting models. The new strategy based on combined forecasts of single models is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales in its series Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico with number 1001.

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Length: pages 29
Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1001

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Keywords: Value-at-Risk (VaR); daily capital charges; robust forecasts; violation penalties; optimizing strategy; aggressive risk management strategy; conservative risk management strategy; Basel II Accord; global financial crisis.;

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Cited by:
  1. McAleer, M.J. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2012. "Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2012-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Perez Amaral & Paulo Araujo Santos, 2013. "GFC-Robust Risk Management under the Basel Accord using Extreme Value Methodologies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-070/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Roberto Casarin & Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Working Papers in Economics 11/26, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  4. Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Perez Amaral & Paulo Araujo Santos, 2013. "GFC-Robust Risk Management under the Basel Accord using Extreme Value Methodologies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-070/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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