A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk
AbstractUnder the Basel II Accord, banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realised losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we analyze the profit maximizing problem of an ADI subject to capital requirements under the Basel II Accord as ADI's have to choose an optimal VaR reporting strategy that minimizes daily capital charges. Accordingly, we suggest a dynamic communication and forecasting strategy that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard & Poor's 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-159.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-644, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- McAleer, M.J. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2008. "A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk," Econometric Institute Report EI 2008-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de AnÃ¡lisis EconÃ³mico 0907, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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