Selection of Value-at-Risk models
AbstractValue-at-Risk (VaR) is widely used as a tool for measuring the market risk of asset portfolios. However, alternative VaR implementations are known to yield fairly different VaR forecasts. Hence, every use of VaR requires choosing among alternative forecasting models. This paper undertakes two case studies in model selection, for the S&P 500 index and India's NSE-50 index, at the 95% and 99% levels. We employ a two-stage model selection procedure. In the first stage we test a class of models for statistical accuracy. If multiple models survive rejection with the tests, we perform a second stage filtering of the surviving models using subjective loss functions. This two-stage model selection procedure does prove to be useful in choosing a VaR model, while only incompletely addressing the problem. These case studies give us some evidence about the strengths and limitations of present knowledge on estimation and testing for VaR. Copyright Â© 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting Using Explanatory Variables and Focused Selection Criteria," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Cifter, Atilla & Ozun, Alper, 2007.
"The Predictive Performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture GARCH in Risk Management: Evidence from Turkey,"
2489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Atilla Çifter & Alper Özün, 2007. "The Predictive Performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture GARCH in Risk Management: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 1(1), pages 7-34.
- Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
- Jacek Osiewalski & Anna Pajor, 2010. "Bayesian Value-at-Risk for a Portfolio: Multi- and Univariate Approaches Using MSF-SBEKK Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 253-277, September.
- Liu, Hung-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Mei & Cheng, Nick Ying-Pin, 2012. "Forecasting the volatility of S&P depositary receipts using GARCH-type models under intraday range-based and return-based proxy measures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 78-91.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011.
"The role of high frequency intra-daily data, daily range and implied volatility in multi-period Value-at-Risk forecasting,"
35252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos‐Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2013. "The Role of High‐Frequency Intra‐daily Data, Daily Range and Implied Volatility in Multi‐period Value‐at‐Risk Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 561-576, 09.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kilic, Ekrem, 2006. "Violation duration as a better way of VaR model evaluation : evidence from Turkish market portfolio," MPRA Paper 5610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009.
"A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk,"
CIRJE-F-644, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CARF F-Series CARF-F-159, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- McAleer, M.J. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2008. "A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de AnÃ¡lisis EconÃ³mico 0907, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
- Maria Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws087326, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
- Anastassios A. Drakos & Georgios P. Kouretas & Leonidas P. Zarangas, 2010. "Forecasting financial volatility of the Athens stock exchange daily returns: an application of the asymmetric normal mixture GARCH model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 331-350.
- Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012. "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1153-1169.
- Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2008.
"Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective,"
Econometrics Working Papers Archive
wp2008_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2010. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 29-56, Winter.
- Juan Reboredo & José Matías & Raquel Garcia-Rubio, 2012. "Nonlinearity in Forecasting of High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 245-264, October.
- Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2012. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a Hybrid approach," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/47, European University Institute.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.