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How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?

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Author Info
Peter F. Christoffersen
Francis X. Diebold

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Abstract

It depends. If volatility fluctuates in a forecastable way, then volatility forecasts are useful for risk management; hence the interest in volatility forecastability in the risk management literature. Volatility forecastability, however, varies with horizon, and different horizons are relevant in different applications. Existing assessments are plagued by the fact that they are joint assessments of volatility forecastability and an assumed model, and the results vary not only with the horizon, but also with the model. To address this problem, we develop a model-free procedure for measuring volatility forecastability across horizons. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that volatility forecastability decays quickly with horizon. Volatility forecastability, although clearly of relevance for risk management at the very short horizons relevant for, say, trading desk management, may not be important for risk management more generally.e conclude in Section VI by discussing some limitations of our analysis, and offer some recommendations for implementation.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 97-45.

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Date of creation: Oct 1997
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:97-45

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  1. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell, . "On the Pricing of Intermediated Risks: Theory and Application to Catastrophe Reinsurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-24, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1993. " Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1629-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Francis Dieobold, 1986. "Modeling The persistence Of Conditional Variances: A Comment," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 51-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 135-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. George S. Oldfield & Anthony M. Santomero, 1997. "The Place of Risk Management in Financial Institutions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  7. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  12. Jon Danielsson, 1997. "Extreme Returns, Tail Estimation, and Value-at-Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp273, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Anthony M. Santomero, 1997. "Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-11, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  16. Kenneth A. Froot & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "A Framework For Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(3), pages 22-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. David F. Babbel & Anthony M. Santomero, 1997. "Risk Management by Insurers: An Analysis of the Process," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  18. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March. [Downloadable!]
  20. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Anthony Santomero, 1997. "Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 83-115, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  23. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Francis X. Diebold & Andrew Hickman & Atsushi Inoue & Til Schuermann, 1997. "Converting 1-Day Volatility to h-Day Volatitlity: Scaling by Root-h is Worse Than You Think," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  25. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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