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Evaluating the forecasts of risk models

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Author Info
Jeremy Berkowitz
Abstract

The forecast evaluation literature has traditionally focused on methods for assessing point-forecasts. However, in the context of risk models, interest centers on more than just a single point of the forecast distribution. For example, value-at-risk (VaR) models, which are currently in extremely wide, use form interval forecasts. Many other important financial calculations also involve estimates not summarized by a point-forecast. Although some techniques are currently available for assessing interval and density forecasts, none are suitable for sample sizes typically available. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluating such forecasts. It requires evaluation of the entire forecast distribution, rather than a value-at-risk quantity. The information content of forecast distributions combined with ex post loss realizations is enough to construct a powerful test even with sample sizes as small as 100.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-11.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-11

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Keywords: Forecasting ; Risk;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Matthew Pritsker, 1997. "Evaluating Value at Risk Methodologies: Accuracy versus Computational Time," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 201-242, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-35, April.
  4. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  9. Durlauf, Steven N., 1991. "Spectral based testing of the martingale hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lucas, Andr‚, 1998. "Testing backtesting : an evaluation of the Basle guidelines for backtesting internal risk management models of banks," Serie Research Memoranda 0001, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jose A. Lopez & Christian A. Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew J. Patton, 2001. "Modelling Time-Varying Exchange Rate Dependence Using the Conditional Copula," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-09, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. A. Marchi & Luisa Mich, 1998. "Un modello per l'analisi e valutazione dei siti web: applicazione al sito del consorzio Dolomiti Superski," Quaderni DISA 011, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy.
  4. M.P. Clements & Ph.H.B.F. Franses & J. Smith, 1999. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Report 141, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Asmara Jamaleh, 2002. "Explaining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate through a non-linear threshold model," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 422-448, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan G. Timmermann, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 058, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "A coherent framework for stress-testing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Flavio Bazzana, 2001. "I modelli interni per la valutazione del rischio di mercato secondo l'approccio del Value at Risk," Alea Tech Reports 011, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hergen Frerichs & Gunter Löffler, 2001. "Evaluating credit risk models: A critique and a proposal," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 84, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
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