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A review of backtesting and backtesting procedures

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Author Info
Sean D. Campbell
Abstract

This paper reviews a variety of backtests that examine the adequacy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures. These backtesting procedures are reviewed from both a statistical and risk management perspective. The properties of unconditional coverage and independence are defined and their relation to backtesting procedures is discussed. Backtests are then classified by whether they examine the unconditional coverage property, independence property, or both properties of a VaR measure. Backtests that examine the accuracy of a VaR model at several quantiles, rather than a single quantile, are also outlined and discussed. The statistical power properties of these tests are examined in a simulation experiment. Finally, backtests that are specified in terms of a pre-specified loss function are reviewed and their use in VaR validation is discussed.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2005-21.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-21

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Keywords: Risk management ; Bank investments;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  2. Matthew Pritsker, 1997. "Evaluating Value at Risk Methodologies: Accuracy versus Computational Time," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 201-242, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Colleen Cassidy & Marianne Gizycki, 1997. "Measuring Traded Market Risk: Value-at-risk and Backtesting Techniques," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9708, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kerkhof, J. & Melenberg, B., 2002. "Backtesting for risk-based regulatory capital," Discussion Paper 110, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-74, October.
  7. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Katerina Simons, 1996. "Value at risk: new approaches to risk management," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-13. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  10. Matthew Pritsker, 2001. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gonzales-Martínez, Rolando, 2009. "La Gestión de Riesgo de Liquidez en Economías Emergentes: Un Modelo Valor-en-Riesgo (VaR) Paramétrico de Calibración Indirecta y una Aplicación al Sistema Financiero Boliviano
    [Liquidity Risk     ," MPRA Paper 14247, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Linton, Oliver & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2008. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk models via Quantile regressions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 679, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kulp-Tåg, Sofie, 2007. "An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions," Working Papers 526, Hanken School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Bechir Raggad & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2006. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk : Application to Oil Market," Working Papers halshs-00410746_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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