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How accurate are Value-at-Risk models at commercial banks?

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  • Jeremy Berkowitz
  • James O'Brien
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    Abstract

    In recent years, the trading accounts at large commercial banks have grown substantially and become progressively more diverse and complex. We provide descriptive statistics on the trading revenues from such activities and on the associated Value-at-Risk forecasts internally estimated by banks. For a sample of large bank holding companies, we evaluate the performance of banks' trading risk models by examining the statistical accuracy of the VaR forecasts. Although a substantial literature has examined the statistical and economic meaning of Value-at-Risk models, this article is the first to provide a detailed analysis of the performance of models actually in use.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2001-31.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-31

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    Keywords: Risk ; Econometric models;

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    References

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    1. Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 6-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
    5. Matthew Pritsker, 1997. "Evaluating Value at Risk Methodologies: Accuracy versus Computational Time," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 201-242, October.
    6. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," NBER Working Papers 6844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    8. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1995. " Capital Requirements for Securities Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 821-51, July.
    9. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
    10. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    11. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    12. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
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    Cited by:
    1. McAleer, M.J. & Jimenez-Martin, J-A. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2012. "Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2012-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," Working Papers in Economics 10/63, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Matthew Pritsker, 2001. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "Value at Risk: Teoría y Aplicaciones," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 136, Central Bank of Chile.

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