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Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models with Desk-Level Data

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Author Info
Peter Christoffersen () (McGill University and CREATES)
Jeremy Berkowitz () (University of Houston)
Denis Pelletier () (North Carolina State University)

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Abstract

We present new evidence on disaggregated profit and loss (P/L) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts obtained from a large international commercial bank. Our dataset includes the actual daily P/L generated by four separate business lines within the bank. All four business lines are involved in securities trading and each is observed daily for a period of at least two years. Given this unique dataset, we provide an integrated, unifying framework for assessing the accuracy of VaR forecasts. We use a comprehensive Monte Carlo study to assess which of these many tests have the best finite-sample size and power properties. Our desk-level data set provides importance guidance for choosing realistic P/L generating processes in the Monte Carlo comparison of the various tests. The CaViaR test of Engle and Manganelli (2004) performs best overall but duration-based tests also perform well in many cases.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-35.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 30 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-35

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Related research
Keywords: Risk Management; Backtesting; Volatility; Disclosure;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Casper G. de Vries & Gennady Samorodnitsky & Bjørn N. Jorgensen & Sarma Mandira & Jon Danielsson, 2005. "Subadditivity Re–Examined: the Case for Value-at-Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp549, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Christoffersen & Sílvia Gonçalves, 2004. "Estimation Risk in Financial Risk Management," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-15, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Peter Christoffersen & Denis Pelletier, 2003. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-05, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  9. Durlauf, Steven N., 1991. "Spectral based testing of the martingale hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2007. "Backtesting Parametric Value-at-Risk with Estimation Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2007-005_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2008. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2008_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Carlos Velasco, 2008. "Specification Tests of Parametric Dynamic Conditional Quantiles," Caepr Working Papers 2008-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  4. Maria Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws087326, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christophe Hurlin & Gilbert Colletaz & Sessi Tokpavi & Bertrand Candelon, 2008. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A GMM Duration-Based Test," Working Papers halshs-00329495_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Wagner P. Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima & Oliver Linton, 2008. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regressions," Working Papers Series 161, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. J. Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2007. "Estimation risk effects on backtesting for parametric value-at-risk models," City University Economics Discussion Papers 07/11, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
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