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How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?

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Author Info

  • Jeremy Berkowitz

    (University of California, Irvine,)

  • James O'Brien

    (Federal Reserve Board)

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    Abstract

    In recent years, the trading accounts at large commercial banks have grown substantially and become progressively more diverse and complex. We provide descriptive statistics on the trading revenues from such activities and on the associated Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts internally estimated by banks. For a sample of large bank holding companies, we evaluate the performance of banks' trading risk models by examining the statistical accuracy of the VaR forecasts. Although a substantial literature has examined the statistical and economic meaning of Value-at-Risk models, this article is the first to provide a detailed analysis of the performance of models actually in use. Copyright The American Finance Association 2002.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 3 (06)
    Pages: 1093-1111

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:3:p:1093-1111

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    Cited by:
    1. Memmel, Christoph & Wehn, Carsten, 2005. "The supervisor's portfolio: the market price risk of German banks from 2001 to 2003 - Analysis and models for risk aggregation," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    2. Matthias R. Fengler & Ostap Okhrin, 2012. "Realized Copula," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    3. Philippe Jorion, 2005. "Bank Trading Risk and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 11037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Beverly Hirtle, 2007. "Public disclosure, risk, and performance at bank holding companies," Staff Reports 293, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Beverly J. Hirtle, 2003. "What market risk capital reporting tells us about bank risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 37-54.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308.
    7. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2007. "Backtesting Parametric Value-at-Risk with Estimation Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2007-005_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    8. de Fontnouvelle, Patrick & Dejesus-Rueff, Virginia & Jordan, John S. & Rosengren, Eric S., 2006. "Capital and Risk: New Evidence on Implications of Large Operational Losses," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1819-1846, October.
    9. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2012. "Does Basel II Pillar 3 Risk Exposure Data help to Identify Risky Banks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "A review of backtesting and backtesting procedures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Matthew C. Chang & Jui-Cheng Hung, 2012. "Can VAR Be Predictive for Regulation? Evidence from the Futures Industry in Taiwan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 147-162, December.
    12. Fulbert, Tchana Tchana & Georges, Tsafack, 2013. "The Implications of VaR and Short-Selling Restrictions on the Portfolio Manager Performance," MPRA Paper 43797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pritsker, Matthew, 2006. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 561-582, February.
    14. Bao, Yong & Ullah, Aman, 2004. "Bias of a Value-at-Risk estimator," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 241-249, December.
    15. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, . "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. James O'Brien & Jeremy Berkowitz, 2005. "Estimating Bank Trading Risk: A Factor Model Approach," NBER Working Papers 11608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Escanciano, J. C. & Olmo, J., 2007. "Estimation risk effects on backtesting for parametric value-at-risk models," Working Papers 07/11, Department of Economics, City University London.
    18. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Pei Pei, 2012. "Pitfalls in Backtesting Historical Simulation VaR Models," Caepr Working Papers 2012-003, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.

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