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Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

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Author Info
Gregory, Allan W.
Reeves, Jonathan J.

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Abstract

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers' strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W8Y-4RVG3HH-1/1/145ea48c82fe6a6b2609c3e49b980424
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 167-176
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:167-176

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171

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