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Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

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  • Gregory, Allan W.
  • Reeves, Jonathan J.

Abstract

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers' strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 167-176

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:167-176

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References

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  1. Consigli, Giorgio, 2002. "Tail estimation and mean-VaR portfolio selection in markets subject to financial instability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1355-1382, July.
  2. Allen N. Berger & Richard J. Herring & Giorgio P. Szegö, 1995. "The Role of Capital in Financial Institutions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Jon Danielsson, 2000. "The Emperor has no Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling," FMG Special Papers sp126, Financial Markets Group.
  4. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
  5. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
  6. Bradley, Michael G. & Wambeke, Carol A. & Whidbee, David A., 1991. "Risk weights, risk-based capital and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 875-893, September.
  7. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
  8. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
  9. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998. "Horizon Problems and Extreme Events in Financial Risk Management," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  11. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
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Cited by:
  1. Gordon Rausser & William Balson & Reid Stevens, 2010. "Centralized clearing for over-the-counter derivatives," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 346-359, December.

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