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A coherent framework for stress-testing

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  • Jeremy Berkowitz
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    Abstract

    In recent months and years both practitioners and regulators have embraced the ideal of supplementing VaR estimates with "stress-testing". Risk managers are beginning to place an emphasis and expend resources on developing more and better stress-tests. In the present paper, we hold the standard approach to stress-testing up to a critical light. The current practice is to stress-test outside the basic risk model. Such an approach yields two sets of forecasts -- one from the stress-tests and one from the basic model. The stress scenarios, conducted outside the model, are never explicitly assigned probabilities. As such, there is no guidance as to the importance or revelance of the results of stress-tests. Moreover, how to combine the two forecasts into a usable risk metric is not known. Instead, we suggest folding the stress-tests into the risk model, thereby requiring all scenarios to be assigned probabilities.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199929/199929abs.html
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-29.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-29

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    Related research

    Keywords: Risk management ; Risk assessment;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
    2. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:
    1. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological Change, Financial Innovation, and Diffusion in Banking," Working Papers 09-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2014. "Technological Change, Financial Innovation, and Diffusion in Banking," Working Papers 14-02, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    3. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
    4. Francisco Vazquez & Benjamin M. Tabak & Marcos Souto, 2010. "A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 226, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. So, Mike K.P. & Wong, Jerry & Asai, Manabu, 2013. "Stress testing correlation matrices for risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 310-322.
    7. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Stress Testing: A Review of Key Concepts," Research and Policy Notes 2004/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.

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