It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?
AbstractThe internal models amendment to the Basel Accord allows banks to use internal models to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds, which are used to calculate the required capital that banks must hold in reserve as a protection against negative changes in the value of their trading portfolios. As capital reserves lead to an opportunity cost to banks, it is likely that banks could be tempted to use models that underpredict risk, and hence lead to low capital charges. In order to avoid this problem the Basel Accord introduced a backtesting procedure, whereby banks using models that led to excessive violations are penalised through higher capital charges. This paper investigates the performance of five popular volatility models that can be used to forecast VaR thresholds under a variety of distributional assumptions. The results suggest that, within the current constraints and the penalty structure of the Basel Accord, the lowest capital charges arise when using models that lead to excessive violations, thereby suggesting the current penalty structure is not severe enough to control risk management. In addition, an alternative penalty structure is suggested to be more effective in aligning the interests of banks and regulators.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-186.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Bernardo da Veiga & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2009. "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-683, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- da Veiga, B. & Chan, F. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-39, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-09-18 (Banking)
- NEP-BEC-2010-09-18 (Business Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2010-09-18 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-REG-2010-09-18 (Regulation)
- NEP-RMG-2010-09-18 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McAleer, M.J., 2008.
"The ten commandments for optimizing value-at-risk and daily capital charges,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2008-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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- Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de AnÃ¡lisis EconÃ³mico 0910, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
- Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CARF F-Series CARF-F-164, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-652, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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- da Veiga, Bernardo & Chan, Felix & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Evaluating the impact of market reforms on Value-at-Risk forecasts of Chinese A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 453-475, September.
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