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A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk

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Abstract

Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realised losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we propose a learning strategy that complements existing methods for calculating VaR and lowers daily capital requirements, while restricting the number of endogenous violations within the Basel II Accord penalty limits. We suggest a decision rule that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0907.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0907

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Keywords: Daily capital charges; endogenous violations; frequency of violations; optimizing strategy; risk forecasts; value-at-risk.;

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  5. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value-At-Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 831-849, December.
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  12. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
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