Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand
AbstractEven though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-722.
Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Other versions of this item:
- Chaovanapoonphol, Y. & Lim, C. & McAleer, M.J. & Wiboonpongse, A., 2010. "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand," Econometric Institute Report EI 2010-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol & Christine Lim & Michael McAleer & Aree Wiboonpongse, 2010. "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand," Working Papers in Economics 10/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-SEA-2010-04-17 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TUR-2010-04-17 (Tourism Economics)
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