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An Econometric Analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on International Tourist Arrivals to Asia

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  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Bing-Wen Huang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Hsiao-I Kuo

    (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology)

  • Chi-Chung Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

Abstract

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf649.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-649.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf649

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  1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  2. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  3. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Chang, C-L. & Khamkaew, T. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Manabu Asai & Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using Block Structure Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-073/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2010. "Interdependence of International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Leading ASEAN Destinations," Working Papers in Economics 10/27, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

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