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A seasonal analysis of Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia

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  • Lim, Christine
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

Strong economic growth and rapidly rising incomes in Malaysia have led to a surge in Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia in the 1990s, prior to the currency crisis in mid-1997. The purpose of the paper is to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to explain the non-stationary seasonally unadjusted quarterly tourist arrivals from Malaysia to Australia from 1975(1) to 1996(4). As the tourist arrivals series display strong seasonal patterns, deterministic and stochastic seasonality are examined as possible explanations for variations in the international tourist arrivals series. The Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY) S. Hylleberg, R.F. Engle, C.W.J. Granges, B.S. Yoo, Seasonal integration and cointegration, J. Econometrics 99 (1990) 215–238 test for seasonal unit roots is used to examine stochastic seasonality in the various series associated with Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael, 1999. "A seasonal analysis of Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 573-583.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:48:y:1999:i:4:p:573-583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444606.
    2. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444590.
    3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Roengchai Tansuchat & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Interdependence of International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Leading ASEAN Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 481-507, June.
    2. Wang, Tai-Yue & Huang, Chien-Yu, 2007. "Improving forecasting performance by employing the Taguchi method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 1052-1065, January.
    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    4. Hari Sharma Neupane & Chandra Lal Shrestha & Tara Prasad Upadhyaya, 2012. "Modelling Monthly International Tourist Arrivals and Its Risk in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(1), pages 28-47, April.
    5. Wai Hong Kan Tsui & Faruk Balli, 2017. "International arrivals forecasting for Australian airports and the impact of tourism marketing expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 403-428, March.
    6. David Tan & Kan Tsui, 2017. "Investigating causality in international air freight and business travel: The case of Australia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(5), pages 1178-1193, April.
    7. Chang, Chia-Lin & Sriboonchitta, Songsak & Wiboonpongse, Aree, 2009. "Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1730-1744.
    8. Hari Sharma Neupane & Chandra Lal Shrestha & Tara Prasad Upadhyaya, 2012. "Modelling Monthly International Tourist Arrivals and Its Risk in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 24(1), pages 28-47, April.

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