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Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series

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Author Info
Cubadda, Gianluca

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Abstract

This paper extends the notion of common cycles to quarterly time series having unit roots both at the zero and seasonal frequencies. It is shown that common cycles are present in the Hylleberg-Engle-Granger-Yoo decomposition of these series when there exists a linear combination of their seasonal differences which follows an MA process of order, at most, three. The pitfalls of seasonal adjustment for common cycles analysis are also documented. Inference on common cycles in seasonally cointegrated series is derived from existing statistical methods for codependence. Concepts and methods are illustrated with an empirical analysis of the comovements between consumption and output using Italian data.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1999-v14.3/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 14 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (May-June)
Pages: 273-91
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:14:y:1999:i:3:p:273-91

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  1. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2004. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04022, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2003. "Small Sample Improvements in the Statistical Analysis of Seasonally Cointegrated Systems," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03012, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "The Effect of Data Transformation on Common Cycle, Cointegration and Unit Root Tests: Monte Carlo Results and a Simple Test," Departmental Working Papers 200322, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Common Cyclical Features in Cointegrated Time Series," CEIS Research Paper 102, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fabio Busetti, 2006. "Tests of seasonal integration and cointegration in multivariate unobserved component models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 419-438. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. J. Breitung & B. Candelon, . "Common Cycles: A Frequency Domain Approach," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-99, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  11. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 303-323, November. [Downloadable!]
  12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Sectoral Trends and Cycles in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2005. "Seasonally specific model analysis of UK cereals prices," Econometrics 0507014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gianluca Cubadda, 2000. "Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0092, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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