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The Role of Seasonality in Economic Time Series: Reinterpretating Money-Output Causality in U.S. Data

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Author Info

  • Lee, H.S.
  • Siklos, P.L.

Abstract

While empirical evidence on the relationship between money and income has mainly been presented using seasonally adjusted data, seasonally unadjusted data are used in this paper to examine the time series behaviour of money, real GNP, and industrial production, at both the seasonal and zero frequencies based on tests of cointegration and seasonal cointegration. Two important conclusions are reached in the paper. First, although the univariate time series properties of M1 and real GNP appear to be very similar at both the seasonal and zero frequencies, seasonal comovements of M1 and real GNP turn out to be different from long- run comovements. Second, when seasonally unadjusted data are used, there appears to be no long-run relationship between money (M1 or M2) and output in the sense that the null of no cointegration cannot be rejected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97-1.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wlu:wpaper:97-1

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Keywords: COINTEGRATION ; CORRELATION ; STATISTICS;

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References

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  1. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1993. "Another look at the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 189-203.
  2. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
  3. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
  4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
  5. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1988. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kunst, R.M., 1998. "On the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9820, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Ghysels, E. & Perron, P., 1990. "The Effect Of Seasonal Adjustment Filters On Tests For A Unit Root," Papers 355, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Lee, Hahn S. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "A note on the critical values for the maximum likelihood (seasonal) cointegration tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 137-145, August.
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  13. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  14. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
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  17. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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  20. Franses, Philip Hans & Hylleberg, Svend & Lee, Hahn S., 1995. "Spurious deterministic seasonality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 249-256, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers id:3005, eSocialSciences.
  2. Rothman, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Darne, Olivier, 2004. "Seasonal cointegration for monthly data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 349-356, March.
  4. Lof, Marten & Hans Franses, Philip, 2001. "On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-621.
  5. Albertson, Kevin & Aylen, Jonathan, 2003. "Forecasting the behaviour of manufacturing inventory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 299-311.
  6. Minoas Koukouritakis & Nikolaos Giannellis, . "Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Total Misalignment: Evidence from the Euro Exchange Rate," Working Papers 0901, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  7. Lee TongHung & Hwang Hoyoung, 2001. "Money, Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate As Indicator Variables Of Monetary Policy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-98, June.
  8. Omar A Mendoza Lugo, 2008. "The differential impact of real interest rates and credit availability on private investment: evidence from Venezuela," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 501-537 Bank for International Settlements.

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