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Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series

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Author Info
Hylleberg, Svend
Jorgensen, Clara
Sorensen, Nils Karl

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Abstract

Recently, the seasonal characteristics of macroeconomic time series have drawn a lot of attention. It has been argued that the seasonal component of many macroeconomic time series constitutes a major part of the series measured as a proportion of the variance. In addition it has been found that the seasonal component of most macroeconomic time series is constant and best "explained" by seasonal dummies. Specifically it is often found that a Christmas boom is followed by a beginning of the year trough. Based on quarterly and monthly macroeconomic time series from a large number of countries this paper shows that many macroeconomic time series have seasonal components that are changing over time. Furthermore, the Christmas boom and especially the first quarter trough is not found nearly as often as one might expect.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 321-35
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:18:y:1993:i:2:p:321-35

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  1. Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2003. "Small Sample Improvements in the Statistical Analysis of Seasonally Cointegrated Systems," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03012, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
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  2. P.H. Franses & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "The Forecasting Performance of Various Models for Seasonality and Nonlinearity for Quarterly Industrial Production," Econometric Institute Report 222, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2005. "Seasonally specific model analysis of UK cereals prices," Econometrics 0507014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes & Antonio Montañés, 2004. "The Behavior of HEGY Tests for Quarterly Time Series with Seasonal Mean Shifts," Econometrics 0411010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "The Demand For Money In Austria," Macroeconomics 9902012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Staff Report 168, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Yoshinori Kawasaki, 1996. "A Model Selection Approach to detect Seasonal Unit Roots," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-180/7, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk & Paap, Richard, 1995. "Baysian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts," Econometric Institute Report 57, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Rotger, Gabriel Pons, . "Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots with Temporally Aggregated Time Series," Economics Working Papers 2003-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  12. Tomas del Barrio Castro, 2007. "Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present," Working Papers in Economics 170, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, Denise R. Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 487, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gianluca Cubadda, 2000. "Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0092, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  16. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2004. "Efficient Tests of the Seasonal Unit Root Hypothesis," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Yoshinori Kawasaki & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 373-387, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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