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Recent Advances in Modelling Seasonality

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  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

In this paper we review recent developments in econometric modelling of economic time series with seasonality. The prime focus is on econometric models which incorporate explicit descriptions of seasonal variation, instead of removing this variation using a seasonal adjustment method. This review centres around developments in seasonal unit root models and in periodic parameter models, both in the univariate and multivariate context. Several empirical examples are used for illustration. We also discuss several areas for further research. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 299-345

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:10:y:1996:i:3:p:299-345

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
  2. Rodrigues, P.M.M. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "A sequential approach to testing seasonal unit roots in high frequency data," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. repec:dgr:uvatin:2096180 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Emanuela Marrocu, 2006. "An Investigation of the Effects of Data Transformation on Nonlinearity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 801-820, November.
  5. Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Does seasonal adjustment induce common cycles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 289-297, June.
  6. Zhang, G. Peter & Qi, Min, 2005. "Neural network forecasting for seasonal and trend time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 501-514, January.
  7. Ooms, M. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1998. "A seasonal periodic long memory model for monthly river flows," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9842, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  8. Albertson, Kevin & Aylen, Jonathan, 1999. "Forecasting using a periodic transfer function: with an application to the UK price of ferrous scrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 409-419, October.
  9. Yoshinori Kawasaki & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 373-387.
  10. Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "Nonstationary stochastic seasonality and the German M2 money demand function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 61-70, January.
  11. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Franses, Philip Hans, 1997. "Forecasting and seasonality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 303-305, September.
  12. Yoshinori Kawasaki, 1996. "A Model Selection Approach to detect Seasonal Unit Roots," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-180/7, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
  14. Yoshinori Kawasaki, 1996. "A Model Selection Approach to detect Seasonal Unit Roots," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-180/7, Tinbergen Institute.
  15. Evans, Mark, 2006. "A study of the relationship between regional ferrous scrap prices in the USA, 1958-2004," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 65-77, June.
  16. Jorge Ridderstaat & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Measuring Pattern, Amplitude and Timing Differences between Monetary and Non-Monetary Seasonal Factors of Tourism - the Case of Aruba," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-116/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.

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