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The Behavior of HEGY Tests for Quarterly Time Series with Seasonal Mean Shifts

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Author Info
Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão ISEG-UTL & CEMAPRE)
Antonio Montañés (Universidad de Zaragoza)

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Abstract

This paper studies the behavior of the HEGY statistics for quarterly data, for seasonal autoregressive unit roots, when the analyzed time series is deterministic seasonal stationary but exhibits a change in the seasonal pattern. As a by-product we analyze also the HEGY test for the nonseasonal unit root, the data generation process being trend stationary too. Our results show that when the break magnitudes are finite the HEGY test statistics are not asymptotically biased towards the non-rejection of the seasonal and nonseasonal unit root hypotheses. However, the finite sample power properties may be substancially affected, the behavior of the tests depending on the type of the break. Hence, our results are also useful to understand and to predict this behavior under several circumstances.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0411010.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 14 Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0411010

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27
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Related research
Keywords: seasonality; unit roots; strctural breaks; HEGY tests;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk, 1997. "Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 357-368, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005. "Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests," MPRA Paper 125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
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