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Deterministic Seasonality in Dickey-Fuller Tests: Should We Care? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes (ISEG-UTL & CEMAPRE)
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This paper investigates the properties of Dickey-Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward, an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with the long-run properties of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number
0402007.
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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2004Date of revision:
18 Mar 2004Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0402007Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win98; pages: 22. version 2.0Contact details of provider: Web page: http://129.3.20.41
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Keywords: unit root Dickey-Fuller tests similar tests seasonality Monte Carlo Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005.
"Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests ,"
MPRA Paper
125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.
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