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Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data

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Author Info
Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, Denise R. Osborn

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Abstract

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the performance of several seasonal unit root tests for monthly time series. The tests are those of Dickey, Hasza and Fuller (DHF), Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY), and Osborn, Chui, Smith and Birchenhall (OCSB). The unit root test of Dickey and Fuller (DF) is also considered. The results indicate that users have to be particularly cautious when applying the monthly version of the HEGY test. In general, the DHF and OCSB tests are preferable in terms of size and power, but these procedures may impose invalid restrictions. An empirical illustration is undertaken for UK two-digit industrial production indicators.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.

Volume (Year): 26 (1999)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 985-1004
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Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:26:y:1999:i:8:p:985-1004

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "The effect of linear filters on dynamic time series with structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 69-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-77, November.
  3. Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
  5. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  7. Ilmakunnas, Pekka, 1990. "Testing the Order of Differencing in Quarterly Data: An Illustration of the Testing Sequence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 79-88, February.
  8. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
  10. Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
  12. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1984. "Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 350-59, October.
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  13. Dickey, David A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 329-331. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Smith, Richard J. & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 1998. "Additional critical values and asymptotic representations for seasonal unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 269-288, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Zacharias Psaradakis, 1997. "Testing for unit roots in time series with nearly deterministic seasonal variation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 421-439. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. PHILIP HANS FRANSES & BART HOBIJN,, 1997. "Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paulo Rodrigues & Philip Franses, 2005. "A sequential approach to testing seasonal unit roots in high frequency data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 555-569, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gabriel Pons Rotger, 2004. "Seasonal Unit Root Testing Based on the Temporal Aggregation of Seasonal Cycles," Economics Working Papers 2004-1, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  3. Artur Silva Lopes, 2006. "Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 165-182, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Martinez-Espineira, Roberto, 2005. "An Estimation of Residential Water Demand Using Co-Integration and Error Correction Techniques," MPRA Paper 615, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Denise Osborn & Paulo Rodrigues, 2002. "Asymptotic Distributions Of Seasonal Unit Root Tests: A Unifying Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 221-241. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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