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Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data

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Author Info
J. Joseph Beaulieu
Jeffrey A. Miron

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Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence on the presence of seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data. The analysis is conducted using the approach developed by Hyllebcrg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We first derive the mechanics and asyrnptotics of the HEGY procedure for monthly data and use Monte Carlo methods to compute the finite sample critical values of the associated test statistics. We then apply quarterly and monthly HEGY procedures to aggregate U.S. data. The data reject the presence of unit roots at most seasonal frequencies in a large fraction of the series considered.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0126.

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Date of creation: Aug 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0126

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  3. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Aug 1987. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Danny Quah & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "A Common Error in the Treatment of Trending Time Series," Working papers 483, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bhargava, Alok, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the U.S. Postwar G.N.P," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 147-56, August.
  10. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Weak Convergence to the Matrix Stochastic Integral BdB," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 796, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ghysels, E., 1987. "Unit Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: the Case of U.S. Post-War Real Gnp," Cahiers de recherche 8723, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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