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Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data

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  • J. Joseph Beaulieu
  • Jeffrey A. Miron

Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence on the presence of seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data. The analysis is conducted using the approach developed by Hyllebcrg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We first derive the mechanics and asyrnptotics of the HEGY procedure for monthly data and use Monte Carlo methods to compute the finite sample critical values of the associated test statistics. We then apply quarterly and monthly HEGY procedures to aggregate U.S. data. The data reject the presence of unit roots at most seasonal frequencies in a large fraction of the series considered.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0126.

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Date of creation: Aug 1992
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Publication status: published as Beaulieu, J. Joseph and Jeffrey A. Miron. "Seasonal Unit Roots In Aggregate U.S. Data," Journal of Econometrics, 1993, v55(1/2), 305-328.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0126

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  1. Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October.
  2. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
  3. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Papers 0011, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  4. Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  5. Ghysels, E., 1987. "Unit Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: the Case of U.S. Post-War Real Gnp," Cahiers de recherche 8723, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Danny Quah & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "A Common Error in the Treatment of Trending Time Series," Working papers 483, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1987.
  8. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 3450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  10. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-34, June.
  11. Bhargava, Alok, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the U.S. Postwar G.N.P," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 147-56, August.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Weak Convergence to the Matrix Stochastic Integral BdB," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 796, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
  14. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
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