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L’analyse économétrique et la saisonnalité

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  • Ghysels, Éric

    (Centre de recherche et développement en économique, Université de Montréal)

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    Abstract

    In this article, we survey recent developments on the econometric analysis of seasonal time series. As the subject area is rather vast, we cannot cover all aspects of the topic. Instead, we focus exclusively on the subject of seasonal adjustment and other data transformations. Next, we discuss estimation of models with prefiltered data. Finally, our paper concludes with a review of recent advances on testing for unit root nonstationarity in seasonal time series. Dans cet article, nous présentons un survol de développements récents sur l’analyse économétrique de séries temporelles saisonnières. Puisque le sujet est vaste, nous ne pouvons faire justice à toutes les dimensions de la question. Nous abordons tout d’abord le sujet d’ajustement pour les effets de saisons et autres transformations appliquées aux données. Puis nous étudions le sujet du préfiltrage des données en rapport avec les propriétés statistiques des procédures d’inférences, telles que l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires, dans le contexte de modèles linéaires dynamiques. Finalement, nous survolons les travaux récents sur les tests de non-stationnarité pour séries chronologiques saisonnières.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 70 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
    Pages: 43-62

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:70:y:1994:i:1:p:43-62

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    2. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
    3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    4. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
    5. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    8. Ghysels, E. & Nerlove, M., 1986. "Seasonality in Surveys a Comparison of Belgian, French and German Business Tests," Cahiers de recherche 8614, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    9. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
    10. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1990. "Recursive Linear Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Working Papers 3479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ghysels, E. & Perron, P., 1990. "The Effect Of Seasonal Adjustment Filters On Tests For A Unit Root," Papers 355, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Seasonality and approximation errors in rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 21-55.
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    14. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
    15. Bell, William R. & Wilcox, David W., 1993. "The effect of sampling error on the time series behavior of consumption data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 235-265.
    16. Jaeger, Albert & Kunst, Robert M, 1990. "Seasonal Adjustment and Measuring Persistence in Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 47-58, January-M.
    17. Lee, Hahn Shik, 1992. "Maximum likelihood inference on cointegration and seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 1-47.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Christopher A. Sims, 1990. "Rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 35, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October.
    21. Gregory, Allan W. & Wirjanto, Tony, 1993. "The effect of sampling error on the time series behavior of consumption data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 267-273.
    22. Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-98, July.
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