An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration
AbstractWe analyze imbalances in external accounts that have historically a¤ected most developed countries. The purpose of this study is to shed some light on the sus- tainability of the current account for a group of OECD countires by merging the popular Husted (1992) testing procedure with recent econometric analysis dealing with seasonality. A necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. Following previous empirical studies (Husted (1992), Arize (2002) and Hamori (2009)) we analyze the long-run relationship link- ing exports and imports, using quarterly data. In contrast to these studies, we explicitly deal with seasonal e¤ects through the use of periodic integration and cointegration and nd a long-run relationship for the majority of the countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 1320.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Current account; time series; periodic integration; periodic cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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