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High Inflation, Seasonal Commodities, And Annual Index Numbers

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  • Diewert, W. Erwin

Abstract

This paper studies the problems of measuring economic growth under conditions of high inflation. Traditional bilateral index number theory implicitly assumes that variations in the price of a commodity within a period can be ignored. To justify this assumption under conditions of high inflation, the accounting period must be shortened to a quarter, a month, or possibly a week. However, once the accounting period is less than a year, the problem of seasonal commodities is encountered; i.e., in some subannual periods, many seasonal commodities will be unavailable and hence the usual bilateral index number theory cannot be applied. The paper systematically reviews the problems of index number construction when there are seasonal commodities and high inflation. Various index number formulas are justified from the viewpoint of the economic approach to index number theory by making separability assumptions on consumers' intertemporal preferences. We find that accurate economic measurement under conditions of high inflation is very complex.

Suggested Citation

  • Diewert, W. Erwin, 1998. "High Inflation, Seasonal Commodities, And Annual Index Numbers," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 456-471, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:04:p:456-471_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Erwin W. Diewert, "undated". "Imputation and Price Indexes: Theory and Evidence from the International Price Program," Department of Economics 00-12, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    2. Tomas Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2015. "An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 389-402, September.
    3. W. Erwin Diewert, 2001. "Which (Old) Ideas on Productivity Measurement Are Ready to Use?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 85-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Erwin W. Diewert, "undated". "Imputation and Price Indexes: Theory and Evidence from the International Price Program," Department of Economics 00-12, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    5. Carol Corrado & Wendy E. Dunn & Maria Ward Otoo, 2006. "Incentives and prices for motor vehicles: what has been happening in recent years?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Adam Copeland, 2013. "Seasonality, consumer heterogeneity and price indexes: the case of prepackaged software," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 47-59, February.
    7. W. Diewert & Alice Nakamura, 2003. "Index Number Concepts, Measures and Decompositions of Productivity Growth," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 127-159, April.

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