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The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks

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  • Irandoust Manuchehr
  • Sjoo Boo

Abstract

The intertemporal approach to the balance of payments states that non-stationary flows in the current account will cointegrate or cotrend, unless there are permanent productivity shocks or long-run policy distortions. This paper examines the dynamics of the current account for a small open economy, using data from Sweden. The results show borderline cointegration for the current account. Recursive estimates disclose that there is no stable tendency towards finding cointegration. Cointegration is found for the first part of the sample, but from 1990 the cointegration test performs badly until speculative attacks force Sweden to give up the peg of the krona in 1992. In terms of the intertemporal approach, policy could be creating the imbalance, solved with the depreciation in 1992, after which the external accounts gradually move back to long-run equilibrium. [F31, F32, F41]

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  • Irandoust Manuchehr & Sjoo Boo, 2000. "The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 41-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:14:y:2000:i:4:p:41-57
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730000000034
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    4. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "The trade balance in euro countries: a natural case study of periodic integration with a changing mean," Working Papers 1321, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    5. KONYA, Laszlo & SINGH, Jai Pal, 2008. "Are Indian Exports And Imports Cointegrated?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 177-186.
    6. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    7. Tomas Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2015. "An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 389-402, September.
    8. Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, February.
    9. Tomás Barrio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 45-75, June.
    10. László Kónya, 2009. "The sustainability of the current account in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 367-384, May.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración," Working Papers 2112, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    12. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.

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