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Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product

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  • Ghysels, Eric

Abstract

Unit-root tests applied to the postwar seasonally adjusted quarterly gross national product series strongly support the null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root in the data-generating process. Evidence reported here with seasonally unadjusted data is far less conclusive. It is explained why seasonal-adjustment procedures may alter the outcome of conventional tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 8 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 145-52

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:2:p:145-52

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Cited by:
  1. Jesus Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2002. "Seasonal adjustment and cointegration," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003483, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  2. Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Sriram, Subramanian S., 2002. "Determinants and stability of demand for M2 in Malaysia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 337-356.
  4. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1995. "High inflation rates and the long-run money demand function: Evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 77-91.
  5. Mª Ángeles Caraballo Pou & Carlos Dabús, 2005. "Nominal rigidities, relative prices and skewness," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/17, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  6. Muhd-Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2004. "Reassessing The Stability of Broad Money Demand in Malaysia," Macroeconomics 0405020, EconWPA.
  7. Raimundo Soto M. & Matías Tapia G., 2000. "Seasonal Cointegration in Money Demand," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(3), pages 57-71, December.
  8. repec:dgr:uvatin:2098082 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
  10. Artur Silva Lopes, 2006. "Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 165-182, March.
  11. Ignacio Mauleón & Mª Mar Sánchez, 2000. "Fundamentals Of The Us And The Uk Interest Rates Under The Rational Expectation Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2000-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  12. Raimundo Soto & Matías Tapia, 2001. "Seasonal cointegration and the stability of the demand for money," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 103, Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Ghysels, Éric, 1994. "L’analyse économétrique et la saisonnalité," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 70(1), pages 43-62, mars.
  14. Caraballo Pou, M. Angeles & Dabus, Carlos, 2008. "Nominal rigidities, skewness and inflation regimes," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 16-33, March.

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