Economical Versus Political Cycles In An Iberian Manufacturing Sector
AbstractThe paper discusses several questions related to the economic cycles, from the scientific methodological approach to isolate the economic cycles, to an empirical application using data of the Portuguese industrial sector, passing by the identification of the real economic cycles that modulated the productive activity during almost the last 5 decades of the 20th century, and by its rationality. It ends trying to identify the explicative factors of the different phases of expansion, alert, depression, recession and recovering of the estimated economic cycles and puts them side-by-side with the political cycles dictated by the democratic elections.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0404003.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 08 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13. pdf file
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://22.214.171.124
economic cycles; political cycles; manufactories industry; Portuguese economy; explicative cycle factors; industrial economics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-04-11 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988.
"Interpreting cointegrated models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
- Sterne, Gabriel & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1995.
"Temporary Cycles or Volatile Trends? Economic Fluctuations in 21 OECD Economies,"
The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies,
University of Manchester, vol. 63(1), pages 23-51, March.
- Gabriel Sterne & Tamim Bayoumi, 1993. "Temporary cycles or volatile trends? Economic fluctuations in 21 OECD economies," Bank of England working papers 13, Bank of England.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Thor Hultgren, 1960. "Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult60-1.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Tom Doan, . "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salmon, Mark, 1988.
"Error Correction Models, Co-integration and the Internal Model Principle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Salmon, Mark, 1988. "Error correction models, cointegration and the internal model principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 523-549.
- Salmon, M., 1988. "Error Correction Models, Co-Integration And The Internal Model Principle," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 291, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Phillips, P. C. B. & Ouliaris, S., 1988. "Testing for cointegration using principal components methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 205-230.
- Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturer's Inventories," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra50-1.
- Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Pierre PERRON & John Y. CAMPBELL, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas multidimensionnel," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 27, pages 1-50.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.