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Economical Versus Political Cycles In An Iberian Manufacturing Sector

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  • jose ramos pires manso

    (UBI)

Abstract

The paper discusses several questions related to the economic cycles, from the scientific methodological approach to isolate the economic cycles, to an empirical application using data of the Portuguese industrial sector, passing by the identification of the real economic cycles that modulated the productive activity during almost the last 5 decades of the 20th century, and by its rationality. It ends trying to identify the explicative factors of the different phases of expansion, alert, depression, recession and recovering of the estimated economic cycles and puts them side-by-side with the political cycles dictated by the democratic elections.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/io/papers/0404/0404003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0404003.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 08 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0404003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13. pdf file
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: economic cycles; political cycles; manufactories industry; Portuguese economy; explicative cycle factors; industrial economics;

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  1. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
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  3. Sterne, Gabriel & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1995. "Temporary Cycles or Volatile Trends? Economic Fluctuations in 21 OECD Economies," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(1), pages 23-51, March.
  4. Thor Hultgren, 1960. "Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult60-1, May.
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  7. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
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  10. Pierre PERRON & John Y. CAMPBELL, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroƩconomie : le cas multidimensionnel," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 27, pages 1-50.
  11. Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturer's Inventories," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra50-1, May.
  12. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  13. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  15. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  16. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1988. "Interpreting Cointegrated Models," Scholarly Articles 3221492, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
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