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Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax

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  • Carl Bonham

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Byron Gangnes

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

Tourism taxes have become an important source of revenue or many tourist destinations in the USA. Among the most widely used is the hotel room tax, levied by 47 states and many localities. Room taxes are touted by proponents as a way to shift the local tax burden to non-residents, while the travel industry claims the levies significantly harm their competitiveness. Previous studies of room tax impacts have relied on ex ante estimates of demand and supply elasticities. In this study, we analyse the effect on hotel revenues of the Hawaii room tax using time series intervention analysis. We specify a time series model of revenue behaviour that captures the long-run cointegrating relationships among revenues and important income and relative price variables, as well as other short-run dynamic influences. We estimate the effect on Hawaii hotel room revenues of the 5% Hawaii hotel room tax introduced in January 1987. We find no evidence of statistically significant tax impacts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 199505.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:199505

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References

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  1. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Douglas Stone & William T. Ziemba, 1993. "Land and Stock Prices in Japan," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 149-165, Summer.
  3. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
  4. Bonham, Carl & Fujii, Edwin & Im, Eric & Mak, James, 1992. "The Impact of the Hotel Room Tax: An Interrupted Time Series Approach," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 45(4), pages 433-41, December.
  5. Fomby, Thomas B. & Hayes, Kathy J., 1990. "An intervention analysis of the war on poverty : Poverty's persistence and political-business cycle implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 197-212.
  6. Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September.
  7. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  9. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Robert McComb & Young-Kyu Moh & Anita Schiller, 2011. "Measuring long-run economic effects of natural hazard," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 559-566, July.
  2. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S., 2008. "Tourism Taxation and Environmental Quality in a Model with Vertical Differentiation," MPRA Paper 25305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Dec 2008.
  3. Carl Bonham & Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii," Working Papers 200602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  4. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  5. Lava Prakash Yadav & Stephen O’Neill & Tom van Rensburg, 2013. "Economic Crisis and the Restructuring of Wage Setting Mechanisms for Vulnerable Workers in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 221-245.

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