IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hai/wpaper/199505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Bonham

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Byron Gangnes

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

Tourism taxes have become an important source of revenue or many tourist destinations in the USA. Among the most widely used is the hotel room tax, levied by 47 states and many localities. Room taxes are touted by proponents as a way to shift the local tax burden to non-residents, while the travel industry claims the levies significantly harm their competitiveness. Previous studies of room tax impacts have relied on ex ante estimates of demand and supply elasticities. In this study, we analyse the effect on hotel revenues of the Hawaii room tax using time series intervention analysis. We specify a time series model of revenue behaviour that captures the long-run cointegrating relationships among revenues and important income and relative price variables, as well as other short-run dynamic influences. We estimate the effect on Hawaii hotel room revenues of the 5% Hawaii hotel room tax introduced in January 1987. We find no evidence of statistically significant tax impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 1995. "Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax," Working Papers 199505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:199505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/88-98/WP_95-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    3. James Mak & Eric Im & M. Khaled, 1988. "The Incidence and Exportability of Hotel Room Taxes: Some Further Estimates," Working Papers 198809, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    7. Fomby, Thomas B. & Hayes, Kathy J., 1990. "An intervention analysis of the war on poverty : Poverty's persistence and political-business cycle implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 197-212.
    8. McPheters, Lee R & Mann, Robert & Schlagenhauf, Don, 1984. "Economic Response to a Crime Deterrence Program: Mandatory Sentencing for Robbery with a Firearm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(4), pages 550-570, October.
    9. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    10. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Bonham, Carl & Fujii, Edwin & Im, Eric & Mak, James, 1992. "The Impact of the Hotel Room Tax: An Interrupted Time Series Approach," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 45(4), pages 433-441, December.
    13. Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September.
    14. Douglas Stone & William T. Ziemba, 1993. "Land and Stock Prices in Japan," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 149-165, Summer.
    15. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
    16. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bonham, Carl & Gangnes, Byron & Zhou, Ting, 2009. "Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 531-549, July.
    2. Lava Prakash Yadav & Stephen O’Neill & Tom van Rensburg, 2013. "Economic Crisis and the Restructuring of Wage Setting Mechanisms for Vulnerable Workers in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 221-245.
    3. Carl Bonham & Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii," Economics Study Area Working Papers 87, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    4. Robert McComb & Young-Kyu Moh & Anita Schiller, 2011. "Measuring long-run economic effects of natural hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 559-566, July.
    5. Russu, Paolo, 2012. "Dynamics in a environmental model with tourism taxation," MPRA Paper 37213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nestor M. Arguea & Richard R. Hawkins, 2015. "The rate elasticity of Florida tourist development (aka bed) taxes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(18), pages 1823-1832, April.
    7. Mohammad Mohebi & Khalid Abdul Rahim & Lee Chin & Khairil Wahidin Awang, 2011. "Tax Exportability in Tourism Market," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 3(2), pages 410-415, June.
    8. Michael Toma & Richard McGrath & James Payne, 2009. "Hotel tax receipts and the 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil': a time series intervention seasonal ARIMA model with time-varying variance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 653-656.
    9. Stephen O'Neill & Lava Prakash Yadav, 2016. "Willingness to pay towards a public good: how does a refund option affect stated values?," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(2), pages 342-359, February.
    10. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S., 2008. "Tourism Taxation and Environmental Quality in a Model with Vertical Differentiation," MPRA Paper 25305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    11. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberto Martínez-Espiñeira, 2007. "An Estimation of Residential Water Demand Using Co-Integration and Error Correction Techniques," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, May.
    2. Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1997. "The role of seasonality in economic time series reinterpreting money-output causality in U.S. data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 381-391, September.
    3. Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "Nonstationary stochastic seasonality and the German M2 money demand function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 61-70, January.
    4. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    5. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 11-46, November.
    6. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    7. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    8. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    9. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
    10. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Denise Osborn & Paulo Rodrigues, 2002. "Asymptotic Distributions Of Seasonal Unit Root Tests: A Unifying Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 221-241.
    12. Kremer, Manfred, 1999. "Die Kapitalmarktzinsen in Deutschland und den USA: Wie eng ist der Zinsverbund? Eine Anwendung der multivariaten Kointegrationsanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
    14. Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 1966. "The Effects Of Seasonal Adjustment Linear Filters On Cointegrating Equations: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Economic Research Papers 272847, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    15. Moschos, D. & Stournaras, Y., 1998. "Domestic and foreign price links in an aggregate supply framework: The case of Greece," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 141-157, June.
    16. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 1999. "Applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in Taiwan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 107-131, January.
    17. Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
    18. Seamus McErlean & Ziping Wu & Joan Moss & Jos Ijpelaar & Andrew Doherty, 2003. "Do EU direct payments to beef producers belong in the ‘blue box’?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(1), pages 55-73, March.
    19. Svend Hylleberg, 2006. "Seasonal Adjustment," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:199505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Web Technician (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuhius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.