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The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii

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Author Info

  • Carl Bonham

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Christopher Edmonds

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa
    Research Department, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI)

  • James Mak

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

This paper reviews recent trends in travel and tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii to ascertain how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and subsequent terrible global events affected their tourism flows and the manner and pace of their recovery. We note that tourism in the U.S. has not fully recovered from 9/11 and other international shocks; indeed recovery of international travel to the U.S. may be a long way off. By contrast, Hawaii tourism is enjoying robust growth in the aftermath of 9/11 as growth in tourist arrivals from the U.S. mainland has more than offset declines in Japanese and other international visitors. We suggest that Hawaiis current tourism boom is in part explained by the diversion of U.S. travel from foreign travel. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of vector error correction models to generate dynamic visitor forecasts which we use to ascertain whether tourism in Hawaii has fully recovered from 9/11 and other terrible international events. The paper considers policy options for facilitating the recovery of international tourism to the U.S.

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File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_06-2.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200602.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200602

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Keywords: Tourism; Terrorism; Impact; Recovery;

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References

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  1. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-54.
  2. Nicholas G. Rupp & George M. Holmes & Jeff DeSimone, 2005. "Airline Schedule Recovery after Airport Closures: Empirical Evidence since September 11," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 800-820, April.
  3. Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 1995. "Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax," Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics 199505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrew Kato & James Mak, 2010. "Technical Progress in Transport and the Tourism Area Life Cycle," Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa 2010-13, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  2. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

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