IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v235y2015i1p3-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorism and International Tourism: The Case of Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Ahlfeldt Gabriel M.

    (Department of Geography and Environment & SERC, London, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, Great Britain)

  • Franke Bastian

    (University of Hamburg, Department of Economics, Chair for Economic Policy, Von-Melle-Park 5, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Maennig Wolfgang

    (University of Hamburg, School of Economics and Social Sciences, Von-Melle-Park 5, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

We analyse how German tourists react to unanticipated shocks that alter their risk perception of selected tourism destinations. Using a difference-in-difference strategy which flexibly accounts for macroeconomic conditions and also addresses potential problems of serial correlation, we isolate significant effects of the 9/11 (2001) terrorist attacks, as well as for the attacks in Egypt (1997), Tunisia (2002), Morocco (2003) and Indonesia (2003). These terror attacks impacted especially on Islamic countries all over the world, indicating a transmission mechanism driven by ethnic and religious proximity. At the same time, tourism into Islamic countries was temporarily substituted by tourism to (south) European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlfeldt Gabriel M. & Franke Bastian & Maennig Wolfgang, 2015. "Terrorism and International Tourism: The Case of Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 3-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:1:p:3-21
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2015-0103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0103
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
    2. Aliza Fleischer & Steven Buccola, 2002. "War, terror, and the tourism market in Israel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1335-1343.
    3. George Galster & Peter Tatian & Kathryn Pettit, 2004. "Supportive Housing and Neighborhood Property Value Externalities," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 33-54.
    4. Nada Eissa & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1996. "Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 605-637.
    5. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    6. Carl Bonham & Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii," Economics Study Area Working Papers 87, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    7. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    8. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Gerald F. Parise, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554, November.
    9. Konstantinos Drakos & Ali M. Kutan, 2003. "Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(5), pages 621-641, October.
    10. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore & Stephanie M. Zobay, 2003. "Impact of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games on Employment and Wages in Georgia," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(3), pages 691-704, January.
    11. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Wolfgang Maennig, 2009. "Arenas, Arena Architecture and the Impact on Location Desirability: The Case of `Olympic Arenas' in Prenzlauer Berg, Berlin," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(7), pages 1343-1362, June.
    12. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
    13. Ito, Harumi & Lee, Darin, 2005. "Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-95.
    14. Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "Terrorism and Tourism in the Asia Pacific Region: Is Travel and Tourism in a New World After 9/11?," Economics Study Area Working Papers 86, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    15. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Paulo Maçãs Nunes, 2008. "Does Country Risk Influence International Tourism? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(265), pages 223-236, June.
    16. Nicholas G. Rupp & George M. Holmes & Jeff DeSimone, 2005. "Airline Schedule Recovery after Airport Closures: Empirical Evidence since September 11," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 800-820, April.
    17. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554.
    18. Yair Eilat & Liran Einav, 2004. "Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1315-1327.
    19. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Endrich, Marek, 2020. "The good tourist, the bad refugee and the ugly German: Xenophobic activities and tourism," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Korede Ajogbeje & Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Oludele Folarin, 2017. "The effect of terrorism on tourism development in Nigeria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(8), pages 1673-1678, December.
    3. Agarwal, Sheela & Page, Stephen J. & Mawby, Rob, 2021. "Tourist security, terrorism risk management and tourist safety," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Seabra, Claudia & Reis, Pedro & Abrantes, José Luís, 2020. "The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Gilboa, Shaked & Seger-Guttmann, Tali & Partouche-Sebban, Judith, 2022. "Increasing customer loyalty and WOM in an age of terror: Cross-cultural development and validation of the customers’ reactions to terror scale (CRTS)," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Ana Maria Caldeira & Cláudia Seabra & Miral Sabry AlAshry, 2022. "Contrasting the COVID-19 Effects on Tourism Safety Perceptions and Coping Behavior among Young People during Two Pandemic Waves: Evidence from Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Marina Segura & Rosa Lopez-Gigosos & Eloisa Mariscal-Lopez & Mario Gutierrez-Bedmar & Alberto Mariscal, 2019. "Trends in the travelers’ demand for pre-travel medical advice at a Spanish International Vaccination Center between 2000 and 2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-13, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Carl Bonham & Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii," Working Papers 200602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    3. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Seabra, Claudia & Reis, Pedro & Abrantes, José Luís, 2020. "The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    6. Schmude Jürgen & Karl Marion & Weber Florian, 2020. "Tourism and Terrorism: Economic impact of terrorist attacks on the tourism industry. The example of the destination of Paris," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 88-102, June.
    7. Arne Feddersen & Wolfgang Maennig, 2013. "Mega-Events And Sectoral Employment: The Case Of The 1996 Olympic Games," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 580-603, July.
    8. Julio A. Afonso-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2018. "Is Spain benefiting from the Arab Spring? On the impact of terrorism on a tourist competitor country," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1371-1408, May.
    9. Shashitha Gimhani Jayakody, 2017. "The Impact of the Sri Lankan Civil War on the Stock Market Performances," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 394-402.
    10. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.
    11. Dawood Mamoon, 2014. "How a Terrorist Attack Accounts for Trade Deficit in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(12), pages 517-527, December.
    12. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou, 2019. "Peace And Tourism: A Nexus? Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(02), pages 323-339, March.
    13. Mehmet Yaya, 2009. "Terrorism And Tourism: The Case Of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 477-497.
    14. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    15. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Wolfgang Maennig, 2010. "Impact of sports arenas on land values: evidence from Berlin," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2), pages 205-227, April.
    16. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    17. Xueying Huang & Yuanjun Han & Xuhong Gong & Xiangyan Liu, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(2), pages 299-323, March.
    18. Lakdawalla, Darius & Zanjani, George, 2005. "Insurance, self-protection, and the economics of terrorism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1891-1905, September.
    19. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler & Donggyu Sul, "undated". "Reevaluating Terrorism and Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Analysis and Cross-Sectional Dependence," Economics Working Papers 02-03/2013, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    20. Abeer Elshennawy & Khalid Siddig, 2023. "Terrorism and inbound tourism in Egypt: Economy‐wide and distributional impacts," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1910-1933, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; 9/11; Islamic countries; tourism demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:1:p:3-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.