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Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis

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  • Yair Eilat
  • Liran Einav
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    Abstract

    International tourism is a fast growing industry generating half a trillion dollars in annual revenues and accounting for almost 10% of total international trade, and almost half of total trade in services. Yet, it has so far failed to receive the attention it deserves from mainstream economics. This paper attempts to provide an initial understanding of the determinants of international tourism. This paper claims that international tourism, as other forms of trade in services, is driven by unique factors of production, and may be better dealt with in a single industry study rather than in a general equilibrium trade model. In order to understand these determinants the world is viewed as a market of differentiated products, and a discrete choice estimation technique is applied to a large three-dimensional data set of tourist flows. It is shown that a relatively simple estimation technique, combined with a rich data set, can deliver reasonable substitution patterns. It is found, among other things, that political risk is very important for tourism, and that exchange rates matter mainly for tourism to developed countries. These have exchange rate elasticity of about one.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 1315-1327

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:12:p:1315-1327

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    1. Edward E. Leamer & James Levinsohn, 1994. "International Trade Theory: The Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
    3. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    4. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Industrial Organization > Industry studies > Sports, recreation and tourism > Tourism
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    Cited by:
    1. Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Migration and Tourist Flows," MPRA Paper 34905, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Nov 2011.
    2. Teelucksingh, Sonja S. & Watson, Patrick K., 2013. "Linking tourism flows and biological biodiversity in Small Island Developing States (SIDS): evidence from panel data," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 392-404, August.
    3. Rinaldo Brau & Anna Maria Pinna, 2013. "Movements of People for Movements of Goods?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1318-1332, October.
    4. Deluna, Roperto Jr & Jeon, Narae, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Roberto Patuelli & Maurizio Mussoni & Guido Candela, 2013. "The effects of World Heritage Sites on domestic tourism: a spatial interaction model for Italy," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 369-402, July.
    6. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2011. "Tourism and trade in OECD countries. A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 533-554, October.
    7. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2007. "On the impact of exchange rate regimes on tourism," Working Papers 07-07, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    8. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    9. Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    10. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andreas Freytag & Christoph Vietze, 2006. "International Tourism, development and Biodiversity: First Evidence," Jenaer Schriften zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 11/2006, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2014. "“A multivariate neural network approach to tourism demand forecasting”," IREA Working Papers 201417, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2014.
    13. Johan Fourie & Jaume Roselló & Maria Santana-gallego, 2014. "Religion, Religious Diversity and Tourism," Working Papers 09/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    14. Boopen, Seetanah, 2005. "Transport Capital as a Determinant of Tourism Development: A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 25402, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2006.
    15. Johan Fourie & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2012. "Ethnic Reunion and Cultural Affinity," Working Papers 293, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    16. Johan Fourie & Mar�a Santana-Gallego, 2013. "The determinants of African tourism," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 347-366, September.
    17. Camelia Surugiu & Marius-Razvan Surugiu, 2011. "Causality Between Tourism Exports And Trade Openness: Empirical Analysis For Romanian Tourism," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 100-109, November.

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