IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jindec/v56y2008i4p809-839.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?

Author

Listed:
  • DONGLING HUANG
  • CHRISTIAN ROJAS
  • FRANK BASS

Abstract

We conduct Monte Carlo experiments to investigate the biases of assuming a misspecified demand model. We study continuous models (linear, log‐linear and AIDS), and discrete choice models (logit) in the context of differentiated products and aggregate data. Estimating demand with the ‘wrong’ model yields varying degrees of bias in estimated elasticities, but the logit model can yield unbiased estimates for a certain size of the assumed market potential. Merger simulations confirm the key importance of market potential in logit estimation suggesting that a discrete choice model may be preferable even when the discreteness of the purchase decision is questionable.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:56:y:2008:i:4:p:809-839
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00361.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00361.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00361.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Sudhir & Vrinda Kadiyali & Vithala R. Rao, 2001. "Structural Analysis of Manufacturer Pricing in the Presence of a Strategic Retailer," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm229, Yale School of Management.
    2. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Competitive Pricing Behavior in the Auto Market: A Structural Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 42-60, January.
    3. Jerry Hausman & Gregory Leonard & J. Douglas Zona, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 34, pages 143-157.
    4. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hausman, Jerry A & Leonard, Gregory K, 2002. "The Competitive Effects of a New Product Introduction: A Case Study," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 237-263, September.
    6. Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & Craig Brett, 2002. "Spatial Price Competition: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1111-1153, May.
    7. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Structural Analysis of Manufacturer Pricing in the Presence of a Strategic Retailer," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 244-264, October.
    8. Gasmi, F & Laffont, J J & Vuong, Q, 1992. "Econometric Analysis of Collusive Behavior in a Soft-Drink Market," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 277-311, Summer.
    9. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    10. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    11. David Besanko & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Sachin Gupta, 2003. "Competitive Price Discrimination Strategies in a Vertical Channel Using Aggregate Retail Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(9), pages 1121-1138, September.
    12. Gregory Werden, 2000. "Expert Report in United States v. Interstate Bakeries Corp. and Continental Baking Co," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 139-148.
    13. Philip Crooke & Luke Froeb & Steven Tschantz & Gregory Werden, 1999. "Effects of Assumed Demand Form on Simulated Postmerger Equilibria," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(3), pages 205-217, November.
    14. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Competitive Pricing Behavior in the US Auto Market: A Structural Analysis," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm228, Yale School of Management.
    15. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 2004. "Mergers, brand competition, and the price of a pint," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 617-643, June.
    16. Margaret E. Slade, 2004. "Market Power and Joint Dominance in U.K. Brewing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 133-163, March.
    17. David Besanko & Sachin Gupta & Dipak Jain, 1998. "Logit Demand Estimation Under Competitive Pricing Behavior: An Equilibrium Framework," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-1), pages 1533-1547, November.
    18. Werden, Gregory J, 1996. "A Robust Test for Consumer Welfare Enhancing Mergers among Sellers of Differentiated Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 409-413, December.
    19. Kadiyali, Vrinda & Vilcassim, Naufel J & Chintagunta, Pradeep K, 1996. "Empirical Analysis of Competitive Product Line Pricing Decisions: Lead, Follow, or Move Together?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 459-487, October.
    20. Pradeep Chintagunta & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Vishal Singh, 2003. "Balancing Profitability and Customer Welfare in a Supermarket Chain," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 111-147, March.
    21. Peters, Craig, 2006. "Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 627-649, October.
    22. Christian Rojas, 2008. "Price Competition In U.S. Brewing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-31, March.
    23. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    24. White, Halbert, 1980. "Using Least Squares to Approximate Unknown Regression Functions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(1), pages 149-170, February.
    25. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    26. Robert H. Porter, 1983. "A Study of Cartel Stability: The Joint Executive Committee, 1880-1886," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 301-314, Autumn.
    27. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Puneet Manchanda, 2005. "Differences in Dynamic Brand Competition Across Markets: An Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 81-95, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2010. "An empirical Analysis of the Counter-factual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2010.08, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    2. Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.
    3. Verboven, Frank & Björnerstedt, Jonas, 2012. "Does Merger Simulation Work? A "Natural Experiment" in the Swedish Analgesics Market Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bimbo, Francesco & Bonanno, Alessandro & Viscecchia, Rosaria, 2019. "An empirical framework to study food labelling fraud: an application to the Italian extra-virgin olive oil market," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    5. Bonnet, Céline & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Corre, Tifenn, 2018. "An Environmental Tax Towards More Sustainable Food: Empirical Evidence of the Consumption of Animal Products in France," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 48-61.
    6. Ryo Sakamoto & Kyle Stiegert, 2018. "Comparing competitive toughness to benchmark outcomes in retail oligopoly pricing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 44-60, December.
    7. Heng, Yan & Peterson, Hikaru, 2014. "Estimating Demand for Differentiated Eggs Using Scanner Data," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Zulehner, Christine & Gugler, Klaus Peter & Weichselbaumer, Michael, 2015. "Analysis of mergers in first-price auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 10799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cohen, Michael & Cotterill, Ronald, 2008. "The Impact of Retail Store Brands on Manufacturer Brands: A Generalization of Steiner’s Elasticity Model," Research Reports 149933, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
    10. Nathan H. Miller & Marc Remer & Conor Ryan & Gloria Sheu, 2016. "Pass-Through and the Prediction of Merger Price Effects," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-709, December.
    11. Chun-Yu Ho, 2010. "Deregulation, competition and consumer welfare in a banking market: evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 70-97, February.
    12. Badruddoza, Syed & Amin, Modhurima & McCluskey, Jill, 2019. "Assessing the Importance of an Attribute in a Demand SystemStructural Model versus Machine Learning," Working Papers 2019-5, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    13. Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas, 2013. "The Outside Good Bias in Logit Models of Demand with Aggregate Data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 198-206.
    14. Hirsch, Stefan, 2022. "Product placement in the meat substitute sector: Evidence from a spatial demand model," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322181, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.
    16. Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2013. "A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2013.04, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    17. Khanal, Binod & Lopez, Rigoberto, 2021. "Demand for Plant Based Beverages and Market Competition in Fluid Milk Markets," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315369, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    3. Geoffrey Pofahl, 2009. "Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(3), pages 245-266, May.
    4. Bonnet, Céline, 2007. "Économétrie de la concurrence entre produits différenciés : théorie et méthodes empiriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 555-580, décembre.
    5. Pradeep Chintagunta & Tülin Erdem & Peter E. Rossi & Michel Wedel, 2006. "Structural Modeling in Marketing: Review and Assessment," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 604-616, 11-12.
    6. Rojas, Christian, 2005. "Does the King Use Its Power? Price Competition in U.S. Brewing," Research Reports 25172, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
    7. Rojas, Christian, 2005. "Market Power and Price Competition in U.S. Brewing," Research Reports 149024, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
    8. Chan, Tat Y. & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi & Yoon, Yeujun, 2017. "Advertising and price competition in a manufacturer-retailer channel," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 694-716.
    9. Affeldt, P. & Argentesi, E. & Filistrucchi, Lapo, 2021. "Estimating Demand with Multi-Homing in Two-Sided Markets," Other publications TiSEM 1317bf39-d02e-4f61-a34f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Sriram, S. & Kadiyali, Vrinda, 2009. "Empirical investigation of channel reactions to brand introductions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 345-355.
    11. Tenn, Steven & Froeb, Luke & Tschantz, Steven, 2010. "Mergers when firms compete by choosing both price and promotion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 695-707, November.
    12. Rojas, Christian & Peterson, Everett B., 2008. "Demand for differentiated products: Price and advertising evidence from the U.S. beer market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 288-307, January.
    13. Alessandro Bonanno & Carlo Russo & Luisa Menapace, 2018. "Market power and bargaining in agrifood markets: A review of emerging topics and tools," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 6-23, December.
    14. Céline Bonnet & Pierre Dubois, 2010. "Inference on vertical contracts between manufacturers and retailers allowing for nonlinear pricing and resale price maintenance," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(1), pages 139-164, March.
    15. Ryo Sakamoto & Kyle Stiegert, 2018. "Comparing competitive toughness to benchmark outcomes in retail oligopoly pricing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 44-60, December.
    16. Timothy Richards, 2007. "A nested logit model of strategic promotion," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 63-91, March.
    17. Tenn, Steven & Yun, John M., 2008. "Biases in demand analysis due to variation in retail distribution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 984-997, July.
    18. Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2010. "Merger Simulation In Competition Policy: A Survey," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 277-319.
    19. Jerome Foncel & Marc Ivaldi & Jrisy Motis, 2008. "An Econometric Workbench for Comparing the Substantive and Dominance Tests in Horizontal Merger Analysis," Working Papers 0833, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    20. Yonezawa, Koichi & Richards, Timothy J., 2016. "Competitive Package Size Decisions," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 445-469.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:56:y:2008:i:4:p:809-839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-1821 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.