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Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects

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  • Miller, Nathan H.
  • Remer, Marc
  • Ryan, Conor
  • Sheu, Gloria

Abstract

We use Monte Carlo experiments to evaluate whether “upward pricing pressure” (UPP) accurately predicts the price effects of mergers, motivated by the observation that UPP is a restricted form of the first order approximation derived in Jaffe and Weyl (2013). Results indicate that UPP is quite accurate with standard log-concave demand systems, but understates price effects if demand exhibits greater convexity. Prediction error does not systematically exceed that of misspecified simulation models, nor is it much greater than that of correctly-specified models simulated with imprecise demand elasticities. The results also support that UPP provides accurate screens for anticompetitive mergers.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:216-247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2017.01.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Valletti & Hans Zenger, 2021. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: Where Do We Stand?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 179-212, February.
    2. Cosnita-Langlais, Andreea & Johansen, Bjørn Olav & Sørgard, Lars, 2021. "Upward pricing pressure in two-sided markets: Incorporating rebalancing effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Slade, Margaret E., 2019. "Vertical Mergers: Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Evaluation Methods," Microeconomics.ca working papers margaret_e._slade-2019-10, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Jun 2019.
    4. Voudon, Benoît, 2022. "Indicative Price Rise with synergies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Jéssica Dutra & Tarun Sabarwal, 2020. "Antitrust analysis with upward pricing pressure and cost efficiencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, January.
    6. Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro & Svetlana Golovanova, 2020. "A Unified Presentation Of Competition Analysis In Two‐Sided Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 548-571, July.
    7. Ivaldi, Marc & Lagos, Vicente, 2018. "How Accurate is the Coordinate Price Pressure Index to Predict Mergers’ Coordinated Effects?," TSE Working Papers 18-915, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Moresi, Serge & Zenger, Hans, 2018. "Recapture ratios in merger analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 136-138.
    9. Miravete, Eugenio J. & Seim, Katja & Thurk, Jeff, 2023. "Pass-through and tax incidence in differentiated product markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Margaret E. Slade, 2021. "Vertical Mergers: A Survey of Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Evaluation Methods," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(4), pages 493-511, June.
    11. Dan Hanner & Ginger Zhe Jin & Marc Luppino & Ted Rosenbaum, 2016. "Economics at the FTC: Horizontal Mergers and Data Security," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 49(4), pages 613-631, December.
    12. Jessica Dutra & Tarun Sabarwal, 2018. "Cost Efficiencies and Upward Pricing Pressure," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201901, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    13. Hill, Nicholas & Wagner, Mathis, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of consolidation on premiums in Medicare Part D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. David J. Balan & Keith Brand, 2023. "Simulating Hospital Merger Simulations," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 47-123, March.
    15. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.
    16. Andreea Cosnita-Langlais & Bjørn Olav Johansen & Lars Sorgard, 2018. "Upward Price Pressure in Two-Sided Markets: Incorporating Feedback Effects," Working Papers hal-04141797, HAL.
    17. Nathan H. Miller & Gloria Sheu, 2021. "Quantitative Methods for Evaluating the Unilateral Effects of Mergers," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 143-177, February.
    18. Dennis W. Carlton & Mark A. Israel, 2021. "Effects of the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines on Merger Review: Based on Ten Years of Practical Experience," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 213-234, February.
    19. Keaton Miller & Boyoung Seo, 2021. "The Effect of Cannabis Legalization on Substance Demand and Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 107-145.
    20. Abigail Ferguson & Nellie Lew & Michael Lipsitz & Devesh Raval, 2023. "Economics at the FTC: Spatial Demand, Veterinary Hospital Mergers, Rulemaking, and Noncompete Agreements," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 63(4), pages 435-465, December.
    21. Patrick Cayseele & Stijn Vanormelingen, 2019. "Merger Analysis in Two-Sided Markets: The Belgian Newspaper Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 54(3), pages 509-541, May.
    22. Yongmin Chen & Marius Schwartz, 2016. "Churn Versus Diversion in Antitrust: An Illustrative Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 564-583, October.
    23. Daniel Greenfield & Jeremy A. Sandford, 2021. "Upward pricing pressure in mergers of capacity‐constrained firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1723-1747, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Upward pricing pressure; UPP; Merger simulation; Merger enforcement; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index; Unilateral effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices

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