IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/trb/wpaper/2013.04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Vivienne Pham

    (School Economics, La Trobe University)

  • David Prentice

    (School of Economics, La Trobe University)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyse two counterfactual situations facing an antitrust au- thority following the merger of two of the largest international cigarette companies. First we estimate a random coecients model of demand for cigarettes. The implied elasticity of demand for smoking and implied marginal costs are consistent with the independent estimates available. We then use the model to simulate the proposed merger and the partial divesti- ture that was accepted by the Australian antitrust authority. A comparison of the relative price changes predicted by the divestiture simulation with the actual post-divestiture price changes shows that the model is partially successful in predicting the ranking of price changes across companies following the divestiture. This suggests structural econometric analysis us- ing a random coecients model can provide information for antitrust authorities assessing the implications of a potential merger and partial divestiture.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2013. "A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2013.04, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  • Handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2013.04
    Note: ISSN-1837-2198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/318711/2013.04.pdf
    File Function: first version, 2013.04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/318711/2013.04.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2013.04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jith Jayaratne & Carl Shapiro, 2000. "Simulating Partial Asset Divestitures to 'Fix' Mergers," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 179-200.
    2. Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2010. "Merger Simulation In Competition Policy: A Survey," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 277-319.
    3. John Tauras & Richard Peck & Frank Chaloupka, 2006. "The Role of Retail Prices and Promotions in Determining Cigarette Brand Market Shares," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 28(3), pages 253-284, May.
    4. Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    5. Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2010. "An empirical Analysis of the Counter-factual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2010.08, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    6. Ciliberto Federico & Kuminoff Nicolai V, 2010. "Public Policy and Market Competition: How the Master Settlement Agreement Changed the Cigarette Industry," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, July.
    7. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    8. Ackerberg, Daniel & Lanier Benkard, C. & Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 2007. "Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 63, Elsevier.
    9. Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
    10. Romahn, André & Friberg, Richard, 2012. "Ex-Post Merger Review and Divestitures," IESE Research Papers D/1056, IESE Business School.
    11. Cohen, Andrew, 2008. "Package size and price discrimination in the paper towel market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 502-516, March.
    12. Scollo, Michelle & Borland, Ron & World Health Organization, 2004. "Taxation reform as a component of tobacco control policy in Australia," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt95t699r7, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    13. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    14. Igal Hendel, 1999. "Estimating Multiple-Discrete Choice Models: An Application to Computerization Returns," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 423-446.
    15. Harry Clarke & David Prentice, 2012. "Will Plain Packaging Reduce Cigarette Consumption?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 31(3), pages 303-317, September.
    16. Philip Crooke & Luke Froeb & Steven Tschantz & Gregory Werden, 1999. "Effects of Assumed Demand Form on Simulated Postmerger Equilibria," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(3), pages 205-217, November.
    17. Peters, Craig, 2006. "Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 627-649, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiangrui Wang & Ron C. Mittelhammer & Thomas L. Marsh & Jill J. McCluskey, 2023. "Is Divestiture Effective as a Merger Remedy in the U.S. Beer Industry?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Lorraine Conway & David Prentice, 2020. "How Much do Households Respond to Electricity Prices? Evidence from Australia and Abroad," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 290-311, September.
    3. Wang, Xiangrui & Mittelhammer, Ron C. & Marsh, Thomas L. & McCluskey, Jill J., 2017. "Divestiture of US Businesses May Fail as a Merger Remedy: The Case of the US Beer Industry," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258388, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Friberg, Richard & Romahn, André, 2015. "Divestiture requirements as a tool for competition policy: A case from the Swedish beer market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-18.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2010. "An empirical Analysis of the Counter-factual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2010.08, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    2. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.
    3. Richard Schmalensee, 2012. "“On a Level with Dentists?” Reflections on the Evolution of Industrial Organization," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 41(3), pages 157-179, November.
    4. Jerome Foncel & Marc Ivaldi & Jrisy Motis, 2008. "An Econometric Workbench for Comparing the Substantive and Dominance Tests in Horizontal Merger Analysis," Working Papers 0833, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Joao Macieira, 2007. "Extending the Frontier: A Structural Model of Investment and Technological Competition in the Supercomputer Industry," Working Papers e07-10, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Brito, Duarte & Pereira, Pedro & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2013. "Mergers, coordinated effects and efficiency in the Portuguese non-life insurance industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 554-568.
    7. Nathan H. Miller & Marc Remer & Conor Ryan & Gloria Sheu, 2016. "Pass-Through and the Prediction of Merger Price Effects," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-709, December.
    8. Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
    9. Aaron Bodoh-Creed & Brent Hickman & John List & Ian Muir & Gregory Sun, 2023. "Stress Testing Structural Models of Unobserved Heterogeneity: Robust Inference on Optimal Nonlinear Pricing," Natural Field Experiments 00776, The Field Experiments Website.
    10. Macieira, João, 2015. "Introducing consumer heterogeneity in dynamic games with multi-product firms and differentiated product demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 62-65.
    11. Allais, Olivier & Etilé, Fabrice & Lecocq, Sébastien, 2015. "Mandatory labels, taxes and market forces: An empirical evaluation of fat policies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 27-44.
    12. Bimbo, Francesco & Bonanno, Alessandro & Viscecchia, Rosaria, 2019. "An empirical framework to study food labelling fraud: an application to the Italian extra-virgin olive oil market," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    13. Friberg, Richard & Romahn, André, 2015. "Divestiture requirements as a tool for competition policy: A case from the Swedish beer market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Kidokoro, Yukihiro, 2016. "A micro foundation for discrete choice models with multiple categories of goods," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 54-72.
    15. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Liu, Yizao & Lopez, Rigoberto A. & Zhu, Chen, 2014. "The Impact of Four Alternative Policies to Decrease Soda Consumption," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 53-68, April.
    17. Benkard, C. Lanier & Bajari, Patrick, 2001. "Discrete Choice Models as Structural Models of Demand: Some Economic Implications of Common Approaches," Research Papers 1710, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    18. Weifang Lou & David Prentice & Xiangkang Yin, 2008. "The Effects of Product Ageing on Demand: The Case of Digital Cameras," Working Papers 2008.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    19. Ciliberto, Federico & Williams, Jonathan, 2010. "Does Multimarket Contact Facilitate Tacit Collusion? Inference on Conjectural Parameters in the Airline Industry," MPRA Paper 24888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mergers; divestitures; cigarettes; tobacco; anti-trust policy; competition policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2013.04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stephen Scoglio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sblatau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.