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Reevaluating Terrorism and Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Analysis and Cross-Sectional Dependence

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  • Khusrav Gaibulloev
  • Todd Sandler
  • Donggyu Sul

Abstract

Contrary to the extant literature, this paper shows that the impact of terrorism on economic growth is insignificant in five regional samples. These surprising results follow when Nickell bias and cross-sectional dependence are taken into account. Previous studies have not properly adjusted for these biases. Our provocative findings are robust to alternative measures of terrorism (i.e., domestic, transnational, and total) and to alternative specifications of terrorism (e.g., level, first differenced, and attacks per capita). These findings are also robust to the inclusion of investment and population growth. Moreover, we find that the various forms of terrorism do not affect consumption, investment, and government expenditures. Our results have important policy implications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah in its series Economics Working Papers with number 02-03/2013.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sha:ecowps:02-03/2013

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Postal: P.O. Box 26666, Sharjah
Phone: (971) 6-5055002
Fax: (971) 6-585858
Web page: http://www.aus.edu/sba
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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Terrorism; Dynamic panel; Nickell bias; Cross-sectional dependence;

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References

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  1. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  2. Drakos, Konstantinos & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: Evidence from three Mediterranean countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  3. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  4. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Beverly Porter, 2003. "Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Enders,Walter & Sandler,Todd, 2012. "The Political Economy of Terrorism," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521181006, April.
  6. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, 07.
  7. Gaibulloev Khusrav & Sandler Todd & Sul Donggyu, 2013. "Common Drivers Of Transnational Terrorism: Principal Component Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 707-721, 01.
  8. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Han, Chirok & Sul, Donggyu, 2012. "Asymptotic distribution of factor augmented estimators for panel regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 48-53.
  9. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
  10. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess & Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 1151, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
  12. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2009. "Foreign aid as counterterrorism policy," Working Papers 2009-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
  14. Andrzej CieĊ›lik & Monika Tarsalewska, 2011. "External Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 729-744, November.
  15. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2008. "Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 411-424, 08.
  16. Alvarez, J. & Arellano, M., 1998. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Papers 9808, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  17. Blomberg, S. Brock & Broussard, Nzinga H. & Hess, Gregory D., 2011. "New wine in old wineskins? Growth, terrorism and the resource curse in sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages S50-S63.
  18. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
  19. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-52.
  20. Daniel Meierrieks & Thomas Gries, 2012. "Economic Performance And Terrorist Activity In Latin America," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 447-470, October.
  21. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-54.
  22. Lapan, Harvey E. & Sandler, Todd, 1988. "To Bargain or Not to Bargain: That is the Question," Staff General Research Papers 10817, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  23. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
  24. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandier, 2011. "The Adverse Effect of Transnational and Domestic Terrorism on Growth in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 355-371, May.
  25. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2009. "The Impact Of Terrorism And Conflicts On Growth In Asia," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 359-383, November.
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