IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejapp/v10y2018i4p246-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks

Author

Listed:
  • Abel Brodeur

Abstract

This paper examines the economic consequences of terror attacks by exploiting the inherent randomness in the success or failure of terror attacks. The findings suggest that successful attacks, in comparison to failed attacks, reduce the number of jobs and total earnings in targeted counties by approximately 2 percent in the years following the attack. Analyzing the channels, I find that successful attacks affect, in particular, specific industries such as housing. Last, I show that successful attacks receive more media coverage and increase levels of consumer pessimism in terms of business conditions and buying conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:246-82
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.20160556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20160556
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=7980
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=3YMKoQCenxhlDH7SOP4ZT3CxbskK8Jgo
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=dxOU7hZAt8o4PCWMMWjWLCXJf-UEjLMs
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    2. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & Robert Witt, 2011. "Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2157-2181, August.
    4. Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2010. "Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 477-489, July.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Shapiro, Jesse M., 2002. "Cities and Warfare: The Impact of Terrorism on Urban Form," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 205-224, March.
    6. Pape, Robert A., 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 343-361, August.
    7. Eric Strobl, 2011. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 575-589, May.
    8. Javier Gardeazabal & Todd Sandler, 2015. "INTERPOL's Surveillance Network in Curbing Transnational Terrorism," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 761-780, September.
    9. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    11. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    12. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    13. Todd Sandler, 2014. "The analytical study of terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(2), pages 257-271, March.
    14. Walter Enders & Gary A. Hoover & Todd Sandler, 2016. "The Changing Nonlinear Relationship between Income and Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(2), pages 195-225, March.
    15. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    16. Arzu Kibris, 2011. "Funerals and Elections: The Effects of Terrorism on Voting Behavior in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(2), pages 220-247, April.
    17. Alberto Abadie, 2006. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 50-56, May.
    18. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
    19. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    20. Dreher, Axel & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2011. "Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 42-46, October.
    21. Klick, Jonathan & Tabarrok, Alexander, 2005. "Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 267-279, April.
    22. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
    23. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    24. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    25. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
    26. Gary S. Becker & Yona Rubinstein, 2011. "Fear and the Response to Terrorism: An Economic Analysis," CEP Discussion Papers dp1079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    27. Robert T. Greenbaum & Laura Dugan & Gary LaFree, 2007. "The Impact of Terrorism on Italian Employment and Business Activity," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(5-6), pages 1093-1108, May.
    28. Tatyana Deryugina & Laura Kawano & Steven Levitt, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 202-233, April.
    29. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2004. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers 4, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    30. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554.
    31. Patrick T. Brandt & Todd Sandler, 2010. "What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has It Changed? Are We Safer?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 214-236, April.
    32. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2006. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 899-925, December.
    33. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
    34. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Sandler, Todd & Sul, Donggyu, 2014. "Dynamic Panel Analysis under Cross-Sectional Dependence," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 258-273, April.
    35. Stefano DellaVigna & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "Detecting Illegal Arms Trade," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 26-57, November.
    36. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1995. "Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 769-798.
    37. Louis-Philippe Beland Jr., 2015. "Political Parties and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 198-220, October.
    38. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
    39. Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 810-833, April.
    40. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    41. Gassebner, Martin & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Mierau, Jochen O., 2008. "Terrorism and electoral accountability: One strike, you're out!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 126-129, July.
    42. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Gerald F. Parise, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554, November.
    43. Walter Enders & Gary A. Hoover, 2012. "The Nonlinear Relationship between Terrorism and Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 267-272, May.
    44. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael McMahon, 2012. "Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 517-531, May.
    45. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "The Economic Cost of Harboring Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 331-353, April.
    46. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    47. John Mueller & Mark G. Stewart, 2014. "Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 237-248, Summer.
    48. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Brodeur, Abel & Yousaf, Hasin, 2019. "The Economics of Mass Shootings," IZA Discussion Papers 12728, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    4. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    5. Peter Egger & Martin Gassebner, 2015. "International terrorism as a trade impediment?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 42-62.
    6. Adelaja, Adesoji, 2016. "Agriculture, Inclusive Growth and National Stability:," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235909, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
    8. Michael Jetter & David Stadelmann, 2019. "Terror per Capita," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 286-304, July.
    9. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Ben Bassat Avi & Dahan Momi & Geys Benny & Klor Esteban F., 2012. "The Impact of the Economic Costs of Conflict on Individuals' Political Attitudes," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
    11. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2015. "The Economics Of Counterterrorism: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 131-157, February.
    12. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
    13. Shuai Chen, 2022. "Rally Post-Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9638, CESifo.
    14. Yasir Khan & Cai ShuKai & Taimoor Hassan & Jawed Kootwal & Muhammad Nisar Khan, 2021. "The links between renewable energy, fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth and trade openness: the case of Pakistan," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-25, September.
    15. Fich, Eliezer M. & Nguyen, Tung & Petmezas, Dimitris, 2023. "The effects of terrorist attacks on inventor productivity and mobility," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    16. Roberto Ezcurra, 2017. "Is government decentralization useful in the fight against domestic terrorism? A cross-country analysis," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 35(5), pages 872-897, August.
    17. Amarasinghe, Ashani, 2023. "Public sentiment in times of terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Common myths of terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 271-301, April.
    19. Kenneth R. Ahern, 2018. "The Importance of Psychology in Economic Activity: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks," NBER Working Papers 24331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. The Effect of Pollution on Worker Productivity: Evidence from Call Center Workers in China (American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2018) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:246-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.