Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War
AbstractAssassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination's effects. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13102.
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Note: EFG POL
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
- Jones, Benjamin & Olken, Benjamin, 2007. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," CEPR Discussion Papers 6298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- F52 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2007-05-26 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-HIS-2007-05-26 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-POL-2007-05-26 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward L. Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, 2001.
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1920, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sandeep Baliga & David Lucca & Tomas Sjostrom, 2009.
"Domestic Political Survival and International Conflict: Is Democracy Good for Peace?,"
Departmental Working Papers
200907, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Sandeep Baliga & David O. Lucca & Tomas Sjöström, 2011. "Domestic Political Survival and International Conflict: Is Democracy Good for Peace?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 458-486.
- Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edward Glaeser & Giacomo Ponzetto & Andrei Shleifer, 2007.
"Why does democracy need education?,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 77-99, June.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001.
"The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote, 2009.
"Colonialism and Modern Income: Islands as Natural Experiments,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 245-262, May.
- James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote, 2006. "Colonialism and Modern Income -- Islands as Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 12546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864, August.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- The impact of leader assassinations on institutions
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-12-17 11:08:00
- Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2008. "¿A quién le hacen falta líderes autoritarios?," Research Department Publications 4564, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Burke Paul J., 2012.
"Economic Growth and Political Survival,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-43, March.
- Timothy Besley & Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2007.
"Making Autocracy Work,"
STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers
48, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Diego Puga & Daniel Trefler, 2013.
"International Trade And Institutional Change: Medieval Venice’S Response To Globalization,"
- Diego Puga & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "International Trade and Institutional Change: Medieval Venice's Response to Globalization," NBER Working Papers 18288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Puga, Diego & Trefler, Daniel, 2012. "International trade and institutional change: Medieval Venice's response to globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 9076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010.
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
- Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2009. "Civil War," NBER Working Papers 14801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blattman, Christopher & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "Civil War," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt90n356hs, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2008. "Who Needs Strong Leaders?," Research Department Publications 4563, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
- Beate R. Jochimsen & Sebastian Thomasius, 2012. "The Perfect Finance Minister: Whom to Appoint as Finance Minister to Balance the Budget?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1188, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Richard Jong-A-Pin & Shu Yu, 2010. "Do coup leaders matter? Leadership change and economic growth in politically unstable countries," KOF Working papers 10-252, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- repec:idb:brikps:6734 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dreher, Axel & Jensen, Nathan M., 2013. "Country or leader? Political change and UN General Assembly voting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 183-196.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.