We revisit one of the central empirical findings of the political economy literature that higher income per capita causes democracy. Existing studies establish a strong cross-country correlation between income and democracy, but do not typically control for factors that simultaneously affect both variables. We show that controlling for such factors by including country fixed effects removes the statistical association between income per capita and various measures of democracy. We also present instrumental-variables estimates using two different strategies. These estimates also show no causal effect of income on democracy. Furthermore, we reconcile the positive cross-country correlation between income and democracy with the absence of a causal effect of income on democracy by showing that the long-run evolution of income and democracy is related to historical factors. Consistent with this, the positive correlation between income and democracy disappears, even without fixed effects, when we control for the historical determinants of economic and political development in a sample of former European colonies.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
5273.
Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
NBER Working Papers
11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
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Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"From Education to Democracy?,"
NBER Working Papers
11204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"From Education to Democracy?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 44-49, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004.
"Growth Accelerations,"
Working Paper Series
rwp04-030, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
[Downloadable!]
Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2004.
"Growth Accelerations,"
NBER Working Papers
10566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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